SCHX News and Press, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap From 05/04/23

2023-05-04 15:47:00 ET Summary Why U.S. bank earnings suggest a modest recession? Potential impact of regional bank failures on the broader markets. When it comes to market uncertainty, is reality actually better than perception? The latest U.S. earnings seas...

2023-05-04 02:44:00 ET Summary 2023 has smashed all previous U.S. large-cap stock-market extremes including those of 2021 and 2022. Regardless of whether there is a soft landing or not, current valuations especially for the largest U.S. stocks aren't compatible with contracting ec...

2023-05-03 21:35:00 ET Summary With today’s 25-basis-point rate increase, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has now hiked rates by a cumulative 500 basis points since March of 2022. Whether the Fed hikes rates again in June or goes on pause will likely depend on the labor mark...

2023-05-02 20:47:03 ET Summary The Leading Economy moved into recession last year. The Cyclical Economy is entering recession now. The Total Economy will not be immune from recession. A look at historical lead and lag times and what happens next. The US economy has b...

2023-05-01 13:10:00 ET Summary It appears the recession is right around the corner. As the recession begins, the yield curves will begin to steepen. The 2s10s have started but the 3m10s has not budged. The market can stay irrational for a long time, but in addition, this is th...

2023-05-01 12:07:00 ET Summary Last week’s GDP report was not some kind of near miss, something that could be interpreted as negative if you just squint and employ a little confirmation bias. Real estate had another up week and continues its recovery. There are certainly so...

2023-04-29 07:21:00 ET Summary The NBER is notoriously slow in identifying when the business cycle in the U.S. either peaks before going into recession or troughs when coming out of one. Analysts have built models to try to predict the timing of when the country's business cycle h...

2023-04-29 07:00:00 ET Summary The US economy expanded at a much slower rate than expected in the first quarter, a prelude to recession, according to some forecasters. But there are clues that suggest the economy is stabilizing at a sluggish pace rather than tumbling into recessio...

2023-04-26 22:55:00 ET Summary After taking a back seat to various flavors of small-cap and value factors earlier in 2023, the large-company growth risk factor is again leading the horse race, based on year-to-date returns for a set of ETF proxies through yesterday’s close (Apr...

2023-04-24 14:08:00 ET Summary Yield curves and credit spreads are good indicators but the former aren’t particularly timely and the second can provide a lot of false signals. Interest rates rose last week but the short-term trend for the 10-year Treasury yield is still dow...