SCHX News and Press, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap From 04/11/22

Mortgage News Daily reported that the average 30-year mortgage topped 5% late last week (almost double the rates on offer back in late-2020). Debt servicing costs have skyrocketed over the last year, which will pressure economic growth in the coming quarters, according to historical t...

Does the yield curve inversion cause a recession or does it just provide a signal? Is the inversion only about expected future monetary policy? Do other factors also influence the shape of the curve, and if so, can we disentangle the various factors? There is a lot that we don’...

Inflation expectations have kept the Federal Reserve center stage as they commenced their interest rate rising cycle in March. The war in Ukraine and Omicron’s spread in China impacted inflation and supply chains differently, but both delay supply chain normalization. Regar...

One of the main stories in the money and bond markets of late has been the development of inverted yield curves in the Treasury (UST) market. The Fed just finished purchasing almost $5 trillion in securities. Equally as important, the U.S. economy is in rather solid shape, a fact ...

Recession forecasts are topical lately, driven by the recent inversion of the Treasury yield curve for 2- and 10-year rates. US nonfarm payrolls rose 431,000 in March, extending a run of healthy gains that suggests the economy’s forward momentum remains strong. Economic mom...

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index ticked slightly higher in March to an annualized 5.8% pace, fractionally above last month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) to adjust the forecast trims GMI&#...

The 10/2 spread is one point on the Treasury yield curve which is positively sloped from 1 month to 3 years, negatively sloped from 3 years to 10 years, and positively sloped again from 10 out to 30 years. The dollar is still near the top of its long-term range and I don’t see ...

Pick any barometer of costs these days, and the story is the same: Prices are up - and in a dramatic fashion. The first thing that jumps out is the dismal performance of most asset classes during periods of low growth and high inflation - otherwise known as stagflation. A solid fo...

Among the most surprising developments of 2021 was the collapse in consumer confidence and sentiment survey results amidst the strong post-pandemic recovery. Confidence peaked in June of last year but is still well above its 2020 recessionary low, as the abundance of job openings and ...

The odds of a US economic contraction in the immediate future remain low, but blowback from the Ukraine war and elevated inflation risk could quickly change the calculus. Incoming data in the weeks ahead could be unusually critical inputs for deciding how or if to change the current l...