SCHX News and Press, Schwab U.S. Large-Cap From 07/26/22

In all fairness to the Atlanta Fed, some of last week’s statistical releases indicate an economic slowdown, but at a very slow pace, nothing like the rapid contraction that accompanied serious contractions in 2008-9 or 2020. Russia’s Gazprom last week notified major cust...

As inflation raged, central banks accelerated the pace of monetary policy tightening, aiming to slow the growth of aggregate demand and calm price pressures. In response to persistently high inflation and an upward drift in long-run inflation expectations, central banks are accelerati...

Consumer spending, industrial output, credit quality, and other indicators don’t suggest economic risk. The reduction of the deficit will contribute to the building of recessionary pressures. The best signals of a recessionary onset occur when a bulk of the yield spreads tu...

The VIX-yield curve cycle is a powerful economic phenomena that has persisted since at least the end of the 1980s. Recessions happen following periods of tight monetary policy, characterized by flat yield curves and high levels of equity volatility. Fed tightening is beginning to ...

Three economic reports released on Thursday point to a rising possibility that a recession is near for the US economy. Looking at a broader set of US economic data still reflects growth in terms of modeling business-cycle conditions. We may be approaching the point of no return re...

The US economy has clearly slowed from its rapid 2021 growth and there are plenty of reasons to fear a recession some time in the next year or two. Even if reported GDP shows two negative quarters in the first half of 2022, the NBER committee is very unlikely to conclude that a recess...

The Treasury yield curve is widely used as a first approximation of estimating recession risk. This is usually limited to one or two sets of maturities. Expanding the analysis across the yield curve also provides useful information about the business cycle. All models and indicato...

The markets don’t seem to be necessarily debating whether the U.S. economy will enter into a Fed-induced recession but rather just how shallow or deep any downturn may ultimately be. Yield curve may need to reveal a much more noteworthy inversion before signaling a recession co...

The global economy and financial markets have suffered a dreadful H1 2022, ravaged by a severe commodity shock, strict COVID-19 lockdowns in the world’s second-largest economy, and one of the most aggressive Fed tightening cycles in recent history. H2 looks equally tough. In it...

With prices rising 9.1% year-over-year and outpacing growth in wages, it may be like a recession for those who feel their purchasing power eroding. Thus far in 2022, employment growth has remained robust. With high inflation, it’s clear that consumers in the U.S. and many o...