SDS News and Press, ProShares UltraShort S&P500 From 10/16/23

2023-10-16 08:00:53 ET Summary Billionaire Ray Dalio believes the odds of a global hot war involving major powers have risen from 35% to 50% in the past two years. The economic implications of World War III would be catastrophic, with estimates of a 5-10% contraction in the US eco...

2023-10-14 03:55:00 ET Summary The risk of a crisis event in the economy is increasing, as the Fed’s "higher for longer" narrative is compromised by lagging economic data. The yield curve inversions occur roughly 10-24 months before a recession or crisis event. This is beca...

2023-10-13 04:00:00 ET Summary In the US economy, there’s been quite a bit of optimistic chatter focused on this idea of a soft landing. When you think about investing and mountain climbing, they’re both judged by the ability to move higher. Dividend growers tend...

2023-10-12 22:25:00 ET Summary Headline CPI came in at 3.7% today, but it’s at 2%, right on target, when you exclude shelter alone. This is pretty crucial in the broader context of what’s happening today because shelter is still running at 7.1% in the CPI when we kno...

2023-10-12 04:19:00 ET Summary The first half of the year has been far better than expected when comparing expectations at the start of the year which was a more doom and gloom narrative along with the possibility of an earnings recession. For the first time in six quarters, earni...

2023-10-11 10:15:00 ET Summary Inflationary pressures will likely be higher going forward than they’ve been over the past two decades. Higher real interest rates are necessary in such an environment to keep inflation at target. Higher real interest rates put pressure on bot...

2023-10-11 01:05:00 ET Summary Over the past 12 months industrial production has been flat and the ISM Manufacturing Report has been warning of imminent recession. Despite the warnings from reliable leading indicators, the dominant view now is that there will be a “soft lan...

2023-10-10 01:03:00 ET Summary It’s hard to blame the bulls for their good cheer of late. Spiking inflation no longer dominates the headlines even as the U.S. economy has rebounded toward its long-term trend. Meanwhile, the labor market has started to ease (perhaps reducing...

2023-10-09 23:21:00 ET Summary For the past 30 years, implied volatility and yield curves have been locked in a repeating cycle. S&P 500 options volatility appears to alternate between high and low volatility regimes. Implied volatility on S&P 500 options has been exce...

2023-10-07 00:51:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 Index's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 18.8 times is 8% greater than the historical median valuation of 17.3 times, and in the 68th percentile relative to history. Both the regular return on equity (ROE) and the intangibl...