SFLA News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC

The next Z.1 report comes out in late September, but will only bring the data up to June 30th. I use a pair of adjustments to adjust the share of assets invested in risk assets between releases. The share of funds model now rates the market as having the highest valuation since 1945. ...

Any disappointment in key US data today is likely to see a larger reaction than a consensus beat. Markets are primed for hints of further deceleration, sentiment already dampened by the spreading delta variant and geopolitics. More concrete hints on the Fed taper will be needed fo...

Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is “deeply concerned” about the Fed’s easy money policy and urged the Fed to curtail its aggressive intervention in the bond market. This raises questions about whether or not the Fed might taper sooner than expected. I believe the Fed w...

Numerous multi-decade extremes support a bearish conclusion for U.S. equities. The media has featured numerous articles about how there has been a rotation among equity sectors. The assumption which underlies almost all of these analyses is that we are in a bull market and that the se...

At the close of trading today, the S&P 500 Index is up 100.22% on a price-only basis from its March 23, 2020 low of 2,237.40. It took the market 353 trading days to reach this feat, or just short of a year and a half. Except for some volatility around the U.S. election in Nove...

We believe ignoring the effects of climate change on portfolios is not an option, and the window for investors to position portfolios may be shrinking. The U.S. Senate passed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that now awaits a House vote. Congress will take up the $3.5 trillion spen...

This week, the market did register new highs, but only by a small fraction. What is important to note is that these incremental gains are burning through buying power, which leaves the markets increasingly vulnerable to a correction, given the proper catalyst. However, for now, with v...

With about 90 percent of all S&P 500 companies having reported, the blended growth rate - comprising the actual reported numbers along with analysts’ estimates for the remaining 10 percent - is a stonking 91 percent. A big part of that figure comes from the basis of compari...

Inflation is a bit stickier than expected. And as it is not leading to higher long-term interest rates, it’s not yet having the traditional effect on earnings multiples and bond prices. Despite equity markets near all-time highs, investor anxiety is up. Strategas Chief Inve...

More and more reports continue about the impending market crash. Sadly, very few of such reports are based upon a solid understanding of market context. The next pullback is a buying opportunity. For further details see: Sentiment Speaks: The Market Is About To Crash - P...