SFY News and Press, SoFi Select 500 From 03/05/21

Median new home prices in the U.S. have decoupled from median household income. Since May 2020, new home prices have risen sharply, while median household income has largely stagnated. That combination of factors means that the typical new home built in the U.S. has become relativ...

The money flowing from the central banks and governments has created the so-called "pent-up demand" and predictions of 5% or more GDP growth next year. But capacity utilization is down even while trillions of new dollars pour into the system. Inflation expectations are continuing to g...

Most of our portfolio companies are on track to report record earnings in 2021 and beyond. So why does it look like stocks are going nowhere, and why are we reading so much negative commentary? It is possible that a lot of the good news that we expect to see in the economy, as well in...

The highest-quality bonds have sold off year to date, while risk assets have leapt. Equity bulls are declaring a few percentage points decline in bond prices "carnage" and warn that long bonds have "duration" risk, though the duration risk in equities is much larger than bonds. Wi...

In the fixed income world, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond briefly broke through 1.60% Thursday. This is still low by historical standards but represents a sharp and rapid. We look at weakness in the bond market (remember, bond prices fall as yields rise) and the resulting equi...

Major stock indexes have set 32 record highs in 2021 so far. The market often looks six months ahead, so it sees a robust first half. Retail sales were up 5.3% MoM in January, after economists expected only 1.2% growth. Consumers are flush with cash, ready to spend when the coast is c...

Despite the stock market's gyrations last week, the 10-year Treasury yield spiked above the 1.6% level on Thursday. The catalyst for the surge in yields was a horrific 7-year Treasury bond auction with a very weak bid-to-cover ratio of 2.04. This essentially means the U.S. budget ...

The recent rise in Treasury yields has spooked the equity markets. This is obvious from the recent performance of the bond markets as compared to the stock markets. Inflation is not the cause of this rise, but rather a combination of the stimulus measures, a rebounding economy, our CO...

In January 2020, the 10-year US Treasury had yield of 1.8%. The S&P 500 was on its way to a 4.6% gain and a new record high by February. Then, Covid-19 hit, and in the flight to safety that followed, the 10-year yield went below one-half of one percent. When you consider that low ...

After adjusting for inflation, both personal income and spending rose in January, by +9.7% and +2.0%. The renewed Congressional stimulus package providing $600 checks to most households had an impact on spending, which rose to levels equivalent to 2019 and only about 2% off-peak. ...