SFY News and Press, SoFi Select 500 From 04/14/21

The first quarter of 2021 brought what the Asset Allocation Committee expected, and as it looks to the next six to 12 months, it faces two questions. Do we think the economy will overheat, pushing bond yields to levels that unsettle equity markets or even force central banks to stifle...

All of the recent positive economic news caused the IMF to raise its 2021 U.S. GDP forecast by a giant step to 6.4% (from 5.1% previously estimated). That would represent the strongest annual economic growth rate since 1984. The one warning flag is inflation. Producer Price Index rose...

The economic restart has lifted commodity prices. Beyond that, we see structural trends leading to a divergence of fortunes in different commodities. The International Monetary Fund has raised its global growth forecast to 6% in 2021. U.S. stocks hit record highs and yields traded bel...

We are recovering from a sharp if brief recession, and with the dual fire hoses of fiscal and monetary stimulus, entering a boom such as we have probably not seen in over 50 years. Unsurprisingly, supplies of commodities and goods that had been cut back during the recession are going ...

On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 18,172 to 740,787. Seasonally adjusted claims rose by 16,000 to 744,000. Continuing claims, which historically lag initial claims by a few weeks to several months, continued to make new pandemic lows yet again this week. For...

The PPI report last week didn't make a ripple in the markets, but the commentariat was all aTwitter about inflation and economic overheating and whether Powell might raise in rates in 2 years or 3. The market was not impressed. The 10-year Treasury yield moved all of about 1 basis poi...

With the weekly "buy signals" intact, the markets should hold above key support levels during the next consolidation phase. However, risks are building that have preceded more significant market declines in the past (5-10%). Currently, with investors chasing momentum in a highly i...

The spectacular collapse of Archegos marks a significant inflection point, ushering in a tightening of lending conditions at the "margin" for increasingly vulnerable bubbles. In contrast to the previous bubble period, government "money" has been a principal bubble fuel. Policymakers h...

For the February period, job openings equal nearly 7.4 million and are approaching the peak job openings level of 7.5 million reached in late 2018. This represents a positive sign that economic activity is increasing and businesses are experiencing increasing demand; hence, the need f...

Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance totaled 744,000 for the week ending April 3, up 16,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised tally of 728,000. Despite a second consecutive uptick, the outlook for jobs and the economy has been improving as government restric...