SMLE News and Press, Xtrackers S&P SmallCap 600 ESG ETF From 09/29/22

Summary The Fed is embarking on an almost Volcker-style campaign to slain inflation once and for all, but we think they are overdoing it and risk a hard landing. Inflation was caused by one-off events that have already reversed and things beyond the control of the Fed, which is he...

Summary The current bear market feels more painful than usual because of how broad it has been. Some investors are hopeful the 3,600 level on the S&P 500 marks a bottom for US stocks. Hope will not help, but fortunately, there are better indicators for gauging when this be...

Summary Near-term, inflation will remain elevated. We anticipate at least another 100–150 b.p. of tightening from major central banks in the next few months. There are already signs of an economic slowdown globally, but household finances are robust, corporate balance sheet...

Summary What a strong U.S. dollar will mean for earnings. What the bond market is telling us about the likelihood of a hard landing. Don't expect markets to hit bottom until rates have peaked. From surging inflation to rising rates, recession worries, and geo...

Summary The Fed first warned us of their intentions back in April. Markets had held firm in the months that followed but now finally appear to be on the verge of a crash. An equity crash almost always leads to a liquidity squeeze where all assets get sold due to margin pressures a...

Summary Inflation as measured by government indices (e.g., CPI, PCE Deflator) is a lagging indicator of true inflation. True inflation is defined as the loss of purchasing power of a currency. Right now that is just not the case: the dollar is soaring against nearly every currency...

Summary The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board rose in September, the second consecutive increase following three consecutive monthly declines. The present situation index remains consistent with economic expansion while the expectations index remains consistent w...

Summary Further normalization of headline inflation and aggressive monetary tightening in other regions should keep the U.S. dollar relatively stable, which bodes well for technology companies and other growth-oriented names. The global energy crisis will likely make climate chang...

Summary We believe it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will navigate a pivot to a less-hawkish stance before early in 2023. We expect China to grow at a meager 2%-3% pace in 2022, with the potential for these risks to bleed into 2023, as a slowing developed-market consumer...

Summary In September 2022, there is no denying that inflation is back, and with a vengeance, though we can still debate how quickly it will fade, and to what level. Since 2008, it has become fashionable to attribute all movements in interest rates to Fed action or inaction, and as...