SMLE News and Press, Xtrackers S&P SmallCap 600 ESG ETF From 10/10/22

Summary We require a low be declared post its occurrence, whenever another price decline comes close to the first and does not fall much differently than the declared low. On Friday, we may have seen this phenomenon. Based on prior experience, evidence of a year’s low price...

Summary I visited England recently, just as the BoE began pivoting in a stunning monetary policy reversal. However, just because England is doing it, doesn't mean that the Fed will follow soon. Also, did you see that jobs report last Friday? I don't see the Fed pivoting with b...

Summary When U.S. headline inflation dropped between June and July, it fueled a strong midsummer rally based on hopes that central banks might soon begin to ease their policy tightening. However, while we are not convinced the economic outlook is yet reflected in earnings outlooks...

Summary Macro policy is ripping through markets now. We step back and look at why real assets in private markets like infrastructure could be attractive long term. Stocks fell after U.S. payroll gains slowed but not enough to deter the Fed from its singular focus on inflation, wit...

Summary The currently global “stagflation” experience may evolve toward one of a “soft landing”, a “sharp downturn”, or a “deep recession”. It will all depend on how fast inflation will respond downward to economic decelerati...

Summary The last 40 years of financial markets had vastly different underlying macroeconomic circumstances. The Federal Reserve will tighten until the market breaks. Consumer Price Inflation has structural tailwinds and is likely to reemerge after a pivot, even if inflation de...

Summary Over the last two weeks Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish. The big problem with the Fed’s plan to kill inflation by reducing economic growth and raising the unemployment rate is that t...

Summary Many do not view a very long-term bear market as a possibility. Elliott Wave analysis suggests that an upcoming bear market can last between 7 and 20 years. The nature of the structure we develop in the coming decade will outline how long the upcoming bear market can l...

Summary The last decade, from a historical perspective, looks like an anomaly. If volatility becomes more common in the future, strategies that help reduce downside risk should become integral to equity allocations. Expect to see more volatility in the next 10 years than in th...

Summary The bear markets of 1937, 2000, and 2008 suggest a short-term bottom may be found in October. However, that doesn't mean it will be the bottom. Whether the market bottoms or not will depend on interest rates. The bear market of 2022 still has further to run b...