SMLE News and Press, Xtrackers S&P SmallCap 600 ESG ETF From 01/07/23

Summary Several estimates of fourth quarter economic activity for the US have turned higher recently. The odds that a recession has started, however, remain low, according to the current nowcast. Even if Q4 turns out to be stronger than some nowcasts suggest, headwinds are still blo...

Summary Trying to increase the Fed funds rate to 7%, 2.5% higher than they are currently, risks triggering a catastrophically deep recession. As economic growth expanded, increasing wages and savings, the entire period was marked by inflation surges. The problem comes if inflation r...

Summary The Services sector joins Manufacturing indicating the US economy is in poor condition. The global scene is no different and is confirming the forecasts for a global recession. I don't issue year-end forecasts. Events will happen that defy any forecast because that is what h...

Summary High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. The long and short leading indicators are decisively negative, while consumer spending and employment coi...

Summary This morning's employment report for December showed a 223K increase in total nonfarm payrolls, which was above the Investing.com forecast of 200K jobs added. The unemployment rate for the civilian population unemployed 27 weeks and over has fallen significantly since its 4.4% a...

Summary Employment rises in both Household by 723,000, and Establishment by 223,000, reports. Yesterday Job Openings showed a rise as did Quits. Employment trends remain in positive trends despite the spate of layoffs in the COVID-favored issues which has been the focus of many. Ind...

Summary The US added 223,000 jobs and the unemployment rate returned to cycle lows, but there are signs that a turn is coming. A fifth consecutive drop in temporary help employment is a warning signal while softer wage inflation suggests labour market dynamics are shifting. With bus...

Summary The Fed's objective is a 4.4% unemployment rate to relieve the jobs-worker gap. The December unemployment rate is 3.5%. Thus, the Fed is likely to remain hawkish, which is opposite what the market currently expects. The Upcoming Recession The recession is coming. H...

Summary The DJIA produced a golden cross four weeks ago. Dow stocks are breaking out all over the place. The S&P 500 looks to be headed for a "golden cross." The market is now looking for an end to rate hike cycle in spring of this year. Now, it looks like the growth stocks ...

Summary Among the key components of the services composite index, the business activity index plunged 10.0 points to 54.7. Backlogs of orders in the services sector likely grew again in December though the pace is weak as the index decreased to 51.5 percent from 51.8 percent. Should...