SPAB News and Press, SPDR Portfolio Aggregate Bond From 11/04/22

Summary Fed's Powell remains hawkish on rates, despite dovish overtures in statement. The Fed reiterates its intension that rates will remain high until inflation is cracked. Why rates are going to be higher for longer, even after inflation comes down. Th...

Summary The global economy has been hit by several headwinds, almost all of them leading back to higher inflation. Europe is likely already in recession, the U.S. will enter recession in Q2 2023, while China struggles to make recovery headway. Markets have faced up to the reality ...

Summary Barclays Aggregate is down almost as much as the S&P 500 YTD. As of 10/31/22, the YTD return on high yield is far better than the return on corporate high-grade. There is relative value being created in the various bond market asset classes. Looking at th...

Summary Global bond markets have been rattled in 2022 by central banks’ aggressive policy pivot to address persistent inflation. The Fed is trying to drive economic growth lower and take the pressure off inflation by reducing demand through higher interest rates — an...

Summary The Fed’s next crisis is already brewing. The drawdown in bonds is the most important. The credit market is the lifeblood of the economy. If something is breaking in the Treasury market, it will likely be time to buy both stocks and long-dated Treasuries as the ...

Summary Where opportunities might be emerging in the battered bond market. Why the bond market may face even more volatility. Bond market volatility. Is the bottom in sight? Global bond markets have suffered their worst selloff in decades, as central banks ag...

Summary Year-to-date, allocations to floating rate notes have resulted in a more than 20% performance differential compared to U.S. 10-Year notes. Rising rates explain why owning the same securities as the Agg but reducing the maturity profile (1–5 years) led to losses that...

Summary Active central banks may create attractive opportunities for discretionary macro managers who can take advantage of higher volatility, higher rates and dynamic policy changes. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a large overhang across almost the entire commodity complex. ...

Summary An imminent recession is predicted by Bloomberg probability models that now forecast a 100% likelihood of a US recession hitting by October 2023, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update. Record rate hikes in 2022 have rendered the most negative 10-year...

Summary U.S. recession risks are rising and stagflation may be poised for a comeback. A strong job market has kept us from entering such an environment, but recession risks are rising as the Federal Reserve has vowed to maintain a restrictive monetary policy to rein in inflation -...