SPGP News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF From 09/06/22

Summary The market has been following a relatively clear structure over these last few months. We are now coming to the apex of that clarity. Over the coming several weeks, the market will provide us with the structure as to which direction the next 500+ point move will take u...

Summary The indefinite shut down of natural gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will trigger a severe recession in Germany and Europe. The recession in Europe will likely be severe.  In the event of a cold winter, the prospective recession could potentially be the most d...

Summary The economic data released last week continued to show a modest improvement in the economy since July. The 10-year Treasury yield has been rising since the summer of 2020 although there was a pullback in rates that lasted from April to August of last year. Best-perform...

Summary The short end of the Treasury curve will tell us - probably before Powell does - when monetary policy is on the verge of shifting to neutral or accommodation. If the odds of a recession start to increase, the yield curve will likely flatten first and then steepen, and shor...

Summary The recent jitters in markets have been due to economic data being too strong. Fixed income markets are likely to settle down when central banks signal that financial conditions are sufficiently tight. The current uncertainty may turn out to be worse than the slowdown ...

Summary In November of ’21, stock price momentum started to slow. I was precisely wrong or premature in labeling the first half of ’22 a recession. Falling stock prices had a direct and indirect impact, probably hurting the average American by about 10%. ...

Summary The latest data from the weekly AAII survey showed bearish sentiment cross back above 50% while bullish sentiment is back below 25%. With bullish sentiment having averaged a reading of only 24.22% in 2022, it is below the previous runner-up and record low of 27.29% and 27....

Summary Apartment rents are a classic "sticky price;" the rent is fixed in dollar terms for a year. So, landlords decide how much rent to charge, and people decide how much they're willing to pay, balance rents now vs. higher rents in the future. Inflation should not be a surp...

Summary Global 'Risk Off' gathers momentum by the week. Crisis Dynamics fester, as global central banks coalesce around a united front for battling inflation. JPMorgan CDS rose seven this week to a six-week high 88 bps. Citi CDS jumped nine to a one-month high 103 bps, and Goldman...

Summary The Reserve Bank of Australia makes its announcement early Tuesday, September 6. One of the challenges for policymakers and investors is that Australia reports inflation quarterly. The labor and property markets are showing signs of weakening, but the consumer appears to b...