SPGP News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF From 09/16/22

Summary The preliminary September results show overall consumer sentiment edged higher in early September, but remains at historically low levels. The one-year inflation expectations fell again in early September, dropping to 4.6 percent. Pessimistic consumer attitudes reflect...

Summary With inflation at the highest level in decades and volatility continuing to surge, equity investors are questioning their next moves. At the beginning of the year, financial conditions were very loose by any means historically, and we've very rapidly moved from loose finan...

Summary Real total returns over the next decade are near zero at current valuations. From current valuation levels, the expected rate of return for investors over the next decade will be low. While artificial interventions can delay and extend the cycles, the reversion will ev...

Summary Since the start of the year my largest position has been cash. Cash rarely performs well but it has performed well in 2022 and now the yield on the 3-month Treasury is over 3%. Monetary policy continues to be restrictive which further supports cash over risk assets. ...

Summary Since 1945, the S&P 500 has experienced 86 pullbacks vs. 28 corrections vs. 12 bear markets. With the S&P 500 down more than 18% YTD from its Jan. 3 high, the market is considered to be in a “correction phase”. While the recent correction in the e...

Summary The move lower in jobless claims pressed on this week as the seasonally adjusted reading dropped another 5K down to 213K in addition to last week’s reading being revised 4K lower to 218K. Although the continued decline in seasonally adjusted claims have not resulted...

Summary Starting today, the US Fed has pledged to run off its balance sheet by $95 billion a month. Fed fund futures predict that US policy rates will move to 3%-3.25% next week and 4.25%-4.5% by early 2023. Bond yields and interest rates should be topping out if a Fed pause c...

Summary With S&P 500’s worst day since June 2020 and a hotter-than-expected CPI print occurring late in the response collection period, the timing of responses is a potential cause for the increase in optimism that was contrary to equities’ price action. While bu...

Summary With the ten-year T-note yielding 3.41%, the S&P 500 at 3946 indicates likely nominal returns of 3.00%/year over the next ten years. The Fed will overshoot in tightening, leading the stock market to new lows in this bear market. When the yield curve inverts, those ...

Summary Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell by 5,000 for the week ending September 10th, coming in at 213,000. Claims have fallen for five consecutive weeks and are at their lowest level since May 28th but remained slightly above the pre-pandemic average o...