SPGP News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF From 09/28/22

Summary Inflation as measured by government indices (e.g., CPI, PCE Deflator) is a lagging indicator of true inflation. True inflation is defined as the loss of purchasing power of a currency. Right now that is just not the case: the dollar is soaring against nearly every currency...

Summary The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board rose in September, the second consecutive increase following three consecutive monthly declines. The present situation index remains consistent with economic expansion while the expectations index remains consistent w...

Summary Further normalization of headline inflation and aggressive monetary tightening in other regions should keep the U.S. dollar relatively stable, which bodes well for technology companies and other growth-oriented names. The global energy crisis will likely make climate chang...

Summary We believe it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will navigate a pivot to a less-hawkish stance before early in 2023. We expect China to grow at a meager 2%-3% pace in 2022, with the potential for these risks to bleed into 2023, as a slowing developed-market consumer...

Summary In September 2022, there is no denying that inflation is back, and with a vengeance, though we can still debate how quickly it will fade, and to what level. Since 2008, it has become fashionable to attribute all movements in interest rates to Fed action or inaction, and as...

Summary Our US Equity ETF portfolio has a cash or cash equivalents target of 47%. Inflation may be peaking, but it is doing so at a much higher level than the Fed appears willing to accept. We are continuing with our strategically driven large cash reserve. We're eva...

Summary The headline number of 108 was an increase of 4.4 from the final reading of 103.6 for August. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression. Consumer confidence and small business sentiment have tracked one another fairly closely since the onset of the F...

Summary Prices were way too high in 2021 due to a flood of stimulus, free money, and the post-corona YOLO mentality. Stocks are now approaching my fair value estimate of around 3300 on the S&P 500 but may fall below it due to forced selling. With the Fed rapidly hiking rat...

Summary US businesses reported a third consecutive monthly fall in output during September, rounding off the weakest quarter for the economy since the global financial crisis if the pandemic lockdowns of early-2020 are excluded. While new orders returned to growth, with gains repo...

Summary The US dollar is trading at multi-decade highs against multiple currencies. This is a major headwind for stocks. But the bigger risk is if the dollar should begin to weaken. The strong US dollar has been a big reason why stocks have suffered in 2022, and that str...