SPGP News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF From 07/05/22

Commodities prices have spiked as demand from the restart clashed with tightening supply. We see the war and net-zero transition keeping prices high. U.S. and euro area inflation data last week showed still-persistent inflation. Stocks and bond yields fell as markets priced more risk ...

On July 1, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta lowered its Q2 GDP projection to -2.1%, officially forecasting a recession. If the Atlanta Fed’s projection of negative growth in Q2 comes to pass, it will couple with the first quarter decline of -1.6% to put the US economy solidl...

What is a "Ponzi"? What just happened? A contrarian view of the first half of 2022. It’s the 1970s all over again, or is it? A view from someone who lived every day of it as an investment professional. Investors continue to stare into the rear-view mirror. "Recency ...

The S&P 500 (SPX) followed the trajectory associated with investors focusing on 2022-Q3 in the week ending the second quarter of 2022. Unfortunately for investors, that trajectory points downward, so the index ended the week much lower than it began and worse, ended up back i...

The Euro and emerging markets stocks had the perfectly positive correlation in June (EEM down and FXE down). The end of the liquidity shock will weaken the US Dollar and boost emerging market stocks. Weaker USD needs some evidence of the Fed's dovish turn. The Liquidity ...

We left a stimulated expansion and rising US stock market for a contracting “bear market” and likely economic recession. The stock market performed its traditional function by discounting the future and falling before an economic contraction began. Over the last two week...

Once the COVID distortions are over the economy will return to its previous state of roughly 2% growth and 2% inflation. Real sales of durable goods surged throughout COVID but accelerated rapidly with stimulus payments; sales peaked right as Biden’s American Rescue Act was imp...

Anchored by the deflationary experiences of the last decade, the Fed waited until headline CPI inflation had hit 7.9% before it finally started tightening monetary policy. This delayed response has permitted inflation expectations to rise and wage growth pressures to increase. Monetar...

For a decade, investors chased growth stocks, but now they won't touch them; will a recession and falling rates bring them back? Growth stocks are all about the future, and the CRSP Growth Index contains nothing about valuation. Young growing companies often have negative cash flow an...

PE ratios indicate that stock valuations are now more reasonable, although inflation and earnings both present potential downside risks. Revenue growth and profit margins are both above trend and a substantial fall in earnings appears likely. If inflation were to become structural...