SPGP News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF From 07/26/22

The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board fell again in July, third drop in a row and eighth in the last 13 months. Within the expectations index, just one of the three components fell versus June. The outlook for the jobs market improved marginally in July as the ex...

In all fairness to the Atlanta Fed, some of last week’s statistical releases indicate an economic slowdown, but at a very slow pace, nothing like the rapid contraction that accompanied serious contractions in 2008-9 or 2020. Russia’s Gazprom last week notified major cust...

As inflation raged, central banks accelerated the pace of monetary policy tightening, aiming to slow the growth of aggregate demand and calm price pressures. In response to persistently high inflation and an upward drift in long-run inflation expectations, central banks are accelerati...

Most major economies are dealing with inflation highs not seen in decades. Market expectations of peak policy rates have declined since June, likely reflecting the significant slowdown in activity as well as recent commodity price declines. Tightening financial conditions as well ...

The 2-10 spread has been inverted for a while, and if the Fed is hell-bent on front-loading rate hikes this summer, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread will invert soon. The Federal Reserve can cause a recession with rapid rate hikes in an economy that carries way too much financial l...

Consumer spending, industrial output, credit quality, and other indicators don’t suggest economic risk. The reduction of the deficit will contribute to the building of recessionary pressures. The best signals of a recessionary onset occur when a bulk of the yield spreads tu...

On the heels of a surprise 50-basis-point increase in the ECB’s target rate the FOMC will likely make good on another 75-basis-point increase in its target federal funds range. Governor Waller stated that he favored another 75-basis-point increase, as has St Louis Fed President...

For much of the week, the trajectory of the S&P 500 tracked with the dividend futures-based model's projection of where the index would go if investors focused their forward-looking attention on 2022-Q4. Having the index bounce around 4,000ish threshold would still indicate invest...

This coming week, we will get the Fed’s view of the appropriate level of interest rates. Much of the focus will be on the interest rate number. Far less attention paid to the cause of the action. Without understanding the causes, it is difficult to comprehend whether the result...

Market views of Fed rate hikes have swung sharply. We see more volatility ahead as long as central banks think they can curb inflation without crushing growth. Yields spiked before easing after the ECB raised rates by 0.5% last week. We expect it to pause hikes before the Fed as the e...