SPHB News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 High Beta From 09/19/22

Summary The market has changed direction 11 times this year. I examine and comment on each of these distinct legs. I end with my expectations about where we go from here. Overview - 2022 year-to-date On January 3rd, the S&P 500 recorded its last new high ...

Summary Mitigating the impact of inflation might mean cutting interest rate sensitivity by favoring shorter-dated fixed income but also trimming speculative growth exposure in equity portfolios. The market appears to seize on any sign of easing inflation to be bullish, while remai...

Summary The first half of the year saw GDP contract slightly and GDI expand slightly, and I interpret that as little to no growth. The money market futures I follow and the market based models I track all put the peak in rates somewhere between March and June of next year. I d...

Summary Economists, analysts, casual market observers, the Fed, and central banks' many critics all have one thing in common. Almost without exception, they assume monetary policy can be an effective check on inflation. In a world where, to quote Zoltan Pozsar, "the price of e...

Summary Core CPI, excludes food and energy, rose from July's year-over-year reading of 5.9% to a YoY rate of 6.3% in August. FedEx reported dismal earnings on Friday sending the stock down 21%. A large part of the economic data seems to be indicating the economy is slowing. ...

Summary S&P 500 operating margins are at an all-time high. We expect reversion because of wage pressures, cost inflation, cost of debt rising and top line growth waning. Is the stock market a popping bubble? Perhaps it’s just deflating? By Douglas R. Ter...

Summary After an ugly market reaction to last Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected August CPI report, jobless claims data on Thursday fell. Many are blaming FedEx for the shortfall on a global recession, but a business like FedEx has EPS that is very sensitive to revenue. For...

Summary At the end of the week, the stock market responded to something other than Federal Reserve and the fight against inflation. FedEx Corp. announced that its revenues were coming in at a slower pace than expected and that it was laying off people, closing offices, and cutting...

Summary The S&P 500 and stocks, in general, are dropping again. Despite an optimistic run in the summer, the reality is setting in once again. Inflation is more persistent than expected, and the Fed likely has to do much more tightening. Many stocks are still expensive...

Summary The Fed has no room for errors at this week's FOMC meeting. The communications must be crystal to avoid a repeat of the July disaster. The Fed needs the market to cave in to its demands. For further details see: The Fed Needs T...