SPHB News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 High Beta From 09/27/22

Summary The risk asset sell-off is pushing multiple technical indicators to extremes. These extremes suggest we are closer to a turning point. If the economy avoids recession, this bear market should be shorter and shallower than average. I am still looking for a fourth qu...

Summary A number of advisors have reported higher than normal inventories as an additional sign of pending recession. The data does not support this perception. Business Inventory/Sales…and Retail Sales vs. Trucking… reveal a considerable deficit exists in business I...

Summary A market collapse is nothing but risk-aversion meeting an inadequate risk-premium; rising yield pressure meeting an inadequate yield. Value is not measured by how far prices have declined, but by the relationship between prices and properly discounted cash flows. My ad...

Summary Stocks are now back down to the lows set in June and sentiment is as negative now as it was then. There is a long list of technical items that have hit levels or rates of change we associate with bottoms, short- or long-term. The economic data last week was mostly abou...

Summary Markets are entering a new era, where inflation slowing growth are the new normal. Why we may be entering a period of deglobalization. Why the next decade may look very different from the last for investors. Equity markets have been grappling with hig...

Summary The month of September is living up to its reputation as one of the worst-performing months during a year. In just the past two weeks alone the S&P 500 Index is down 9.53%. The equity market weakness has pushed the S&P 500 Index down to a level that is testing the ...

Summary The S&P 500 continued falling in the third full trading week of September 2022. After the Fed hiked the Federal Funds Rate to a target range of 3.00-3.25%, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects a three-quarter point rate hike. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's proje...

Summary Many central banks aren’t acknowledging the extent of recession needed to rapidly reduce inflation. Markets haven’t priced that, so we shun most stocks. Yields surged after more rate hikes and the UK’s fiscal splurge news. We cut UK gilts to underweigh...

Summary The Fed raised interest rates to 3-3.25% at its Sept 2022 meeting and reiterated its commitment to keep at it, projecting interest rates at 4-5% for the next 2 years. This article shows 5 scenarios of what could happen based on historical comparisons. Do not try to pre...

Summary Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has confirmed the central bank's hawkish policy turn. The anti-inflation strategy features demand destruction and labor market imbalance correction. This will almost certainly lead to rising unemployment and a significant recessio...