SPHB News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 High Beta From 10/11/22

Summary Our big energy bet will pay off handsomely in the upcoming months. OPEC+ announced that they plan a production cut of up to two million barrels per day. It wanted to “shock” energy markets to get crude oil prices back up to $100 per barrel. ISM announced ...

Summary The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index relapsed and is back to where it was in July 2020. The massive valuation overshoot in the recent everything bubble – and hence the downside now – is hard to appreciate until quantified and compared historically. Last ...

Summary The first week of October 2022 saw the S&P 500 (SPX) swing wildly along with investor expectations for future interest rates. The S&P 500 ended the trading week at 3,639.66, right in the middle of the alternative futures chart's redzone forecast range tha...

Summary We require a low be declared post its occurrence, whenever another price decline comes close to the first and does not fall much differently than the declared low. On Friday, we may have seen this phenomenon. Based on prior experience, evidence of a year’s low price...

Summary I visited England recently, just as the BoE began pivoting in a stunning monetary policy reversal. However, just because England is doing it, doesn't mean that the Fed will follow soon. Also, did you see that jobs report last Friday? I don't see the Fed pivoting with b...

Summary When U.S. headline inflation dropped between June and July, it fueled a strong midsummer rally based on hopes that central banks might soon begin to ease their policy tightening. However, while we are not convinced the economic outlook is yet reflected in earnings outlooks...

Summary Macro policy is ripping through markets now. We step back and look at why real assets in private markets like infrastructure could be attractive long term. Stocks fell after U.S. payroll gains slowed but not enough to deter the Fed from its singular focus on inflation, wit...

Summary The currently global “stagflation” experience may evolve toward one of a “soft landing”, a “sharp downturn”, or a “deep recession”. It will all depend on how fast inflation will respond downward to economic decelerati...

Summary The last 40 years of financial markets had vastly different underlying macroeconomic circumstances. The Federal Reserve will tighten until the market breaks. Consumer Price Inflation has structural tailwinds and is likely to reemerge after a pivot, even if inflation de...

Summary It's been said that Goldman Sachs had a 5,100 SP 500 target for year-end 2022 and thought the fed funds rate would be at 1% by the same deadline. The Fed fiddled while the US capital markets burned. The current EPS estimates vs the “peak” 2022 EPS is down...