SPHB News and Press, Invesco S&P 500 High Beta From 11/14/22

Summary Surging stocks show markets believe hopes of a soft landing by the Fed to be true. We disagree and stay underweight developed market (DM) stocks. U.S. stocks jumped and bond yields plunged after October CPI rose less than the market expected. But sticky core inflation keep...

Summary Consumer spending is a short leading indicator for employment. Together, spending and employment are two important coincident indicators of imminent recession. Several of the high-frequency indicators of consumer spending and employment have deteriorated sharply since ...

Summary Market catalysts are not the same as "causes." The CPI report is a market catalyst. As long as cited support holds on the next pullback, I am looking up to 4300SPX. This was quite a week we had. With one of the largest individual day rallies seen in market hi...

Summary In our polarized world, your politics can be hazardous to your performance. Many political claims seem to make sense but do not hold water. The economy, energy policy and inflation may be the poster children of this campaign. Market reaction going into (and coming ...

Summary Given that investors are focusing on 2022-Q4, we need to point out there will be at least one more Lévy flight event before the end of 2022. If that happens during the next several weeks, that means stock prices would fall by a significant percentage. The Atlanta ...

Summary The average spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate has averaged 1.7% since 1990 and now stands at 2.9%. Small and mid-cap stocks continue to look better technically than US large cap. The Russell 2000, S&P 600 and S&P 400 (midcap) index E...

Summary We are in a landscape of divergences and potential pivots. The capacity to absorb structurally higher rates is likely to be key over the next year or two. We think the volatility generated by pivots can continue to offer a favorable backdrop to global macro and other t...

Summary Impressive rally in both the US stock, bond, and international equity markets this week. The relationship between changes in the S&P 500 forward EPS estimates and the 10-year Treasury yield makes for an interesting discussion. The general opinion is that the S&...

Summary Liquidity may become a major headwind for stocks heading into year-end. While many expect a year-end rally, it may be more likely the market will see a new low. Reserve balance could be set to make a low before 2022 is over. The cooler-than-expected October C...

Summary The narrative in financial media is that inflation has peaked. The rate of change of inflation has peaked, not inflation. Inflation remains high and consumers are paying high prices. Yesterday's market rise was highly likely a relief rally. Fo...