STPP News and Press, Barclays Bank PLC ZC SP ILN REDEEM 13/08/2020 USD 50 - Ser A From 03/27/19

Last week stocks shuddered as ten year yields dipped below treasury bills, reminding investors that yield curve inversions eerily precede recessions. A St. Louis Fed model using the yield curve gives a 30% probability of a recession within a year, up from 24% in December. Nonetheless, the S&...

By Matthew Sheridan As economic cycles enter their later stages, investors sometimes find that they're taking too much risk to generate income. There's a strategy that can help - and we think now is the time to use it. Pairing high-yield corporate bonds and other credit assets with high-...

Overview: The US 10-year yield is trading below the Fed funds target. The two-year yield is trading below the lower end of the Fed funds target range. A warning by New Zealand that the next rate move could be a cut sent New Zealand and Australian yields to new record lows. In Japan, the 10-y...

By Robert Savage Perhaps the most important lesson to learn as a child is how to lose. Failure and the teachable moments from it are essential to progress. Winning similarly requires grace and some sense of duty back to the game and its players. Have markets and politicians learned these l...

Recent declines in US government bond yields have led to a flood of articles discussing the likelihood of a US recession over the next 12-18 months. This is understandable, first given the relatively strong correlation between yield curve inversions and US recessions in the past and second, th...

With so much news hitting the wires regarding the Treasury Inversion level and the "potential pending recession," we wanted to shed a little insight into this phenomenon and what we believe the most likely outcome to be going forward. Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd. , believe the T...

Posted by Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist on March 25, 2019, in Market & Economic Weekly Market Compass: Also, will the third time be a charm for Theresa May's Brexit plan? Monetary policy disruption was on full display last week: The Federal Reserve (Fed)...

By Phil Flynn Despite Friday's sell-off due to an inversion in the yield curve, the oil demand numbers are telling us the exact opposite. As I pointed out in recent weeks, gasoline demand has been flourishing, with record low unemployment and rising wages. This comes as we should see anoth...

An inverted yield curve happens when short-term interest rates become higher than long-term rates. For this article, I will use the 10-year Treasury note for the long-term rate and the Fed Funds rate for the short term. The yield curve recently inverted, and market pundits are running around...

Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on March 26, 2019. I haven't discussed gold's true fundamentals* at the TSI Blog since early December of last year, at which time I concluded : "All things considered, for the first time in many months the true fundamentals appear to b...