SYE News and Press, SPDR MFS Systematic Core Equity ETF From 07/21/22

The Treasury yield curve is widely used as a first approximation of estimating recession risk. This is usually limited to one or two sets of maturities. Expanding the analysis across the yield curve also provides useful information about the business cycle. All models and indicato...

The markets don’t seem to be necessarily debating whether the U.S. economy will enter into a Fed-induced recession but rather just how shallow or deep any downturn may ultimately be. Yield curve may need to reveal a much more noteworthy inversion before signaling a recession co...

The global economy and financial markets have suffered a dreadful H1 2022, ravaged by a severe commodity shock, strict COVID-19 lockdowns in the world’s second-largest economy, and one of the most aggressive Fed tightening cycles in recent history. H2 looks equally tough. In it...

With prices rising 9.1% year-over-year and outpacing growth in wages, it may be like a recession for those who feel their purchasing power eroding. Thus far in 2022, employment growth has remained robust. With high inflation, it’s clear that consumers in the U.S. and many o...

Currently, the popular view is that the recession will be short and shallow. Well, it might be, but it’s appropriate to consider the outcomes. Industrial prices lead wholesale, retail, and consumer prices. The JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index fell -3.14% this week and is down -9...

On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index came in at a 9.1% annual rate. The higher-than-expected reading puts the CPI at a new 41-year high. Businesses are also getting squeezed. On Thursday, the Producer Price Index showed wholesale costs rising at a massive 11.3% year-over-year. T...

The US yield spread has inverted, and the 2-year yield is now higher than the 10-year yield. This phenomenon has been a well-known predictor of recessions. A yield spread inversion between the 10-year yield and 3-month yield has been a better predictor of recessions than the more popu...

The ClearBridge Recession Risk dashboard is a group of 12 variables that identify inflection points for the US economy. The risks of recession are continuing to elevate. In the middle of last month, we updated our recession odds to 55% over the next 18 months. The key question for...

One perspective on Real GDP growth is simply aggregate hours worked X the output per hour worked. Aggregate hours worked in the economy is peaking, per capita has already peaked. The other variable, output per hour, is going to continue to fall on account of higher input costs. ...

The Federal Reserve has hardly covered itself in glory by having failed to anticipate recent major turning points in the US economy. The Fed again appears poised to miss yet another major economic turning point. By failing to heed the clear warning signs that we are headed for a r...