TOK News and Press, iShares MSCI Kokusai From 10/27/22

Summary With inflationary pressures and recessionary fears remaining top-of-mind, equity managers see no short-term end to the bumpy ride in markets. One of the key risks cited by equity managers in our third-quarter report is the possibility of inflation remaining stuck at high l...

Summary October flash PMI data will provide much needed insights into the risk of some of the world's major economies falling into recession. Falling or near-stalled output was seen across the four largest developed economies - the 'G4'. Only Japan recorded expansion, and even her...

Summary Global GDP growth is still expected to be positive in 2022 (excluding Russia) but is expected to fall fairly dramatically in 2023. The U.S. Q3 2022 earnings season has just begun, and the outlook is for lower but still positive revenue and earnings growth. Inflation wi...

Summary After a bumpy year, 2023 could prove to be even more challenging for global goods trade with consumer demand faltering, oversupply returning, and the energy and subsequent inflation crisis persisting. So far this year, global merchandise trade has held up extremely well gi...

Summary Global economic output contracted for a second straight month in September, adding to signs that businesses around the world are reporting the toughest conditions outside of pandemic lockdowns since the global financial crisis. Manufacturing is being hit by rising prices, ...

Summary We maintain our intermediate-term bearish bias and think it makes sense to pursue short-term shorts, as well. Shorting stocks is a difficult and complicated proposition. Typical action would see oil back above $100 bbl pretty easily, with a run toward $120 certainly wi...

Summary The last decade, from a historical perspective, looks like an anomaly. If volatility becomes more common in the future, strategies that help reduce downside risk should become integral to equity allocations. Expect to see more volatility in the next 10 years than in th...

Summary Global equity markets outside of the United States have completed a third negative quarter, with the MSCI ACWI ex US IMI Index down 11.26% in the three months through October 30. For the year to date, this index is down 27.19%, which clearly indicates a “bear market...

Summary Equity market volatility persisted in the third quarter as investors came to terms with a new reality of high inflation and rising interest rates. For most of this year, equity markets have violently traded on this unholy trinity of rising inflation, rate hikes and growth ...

Summary We can always find an unimportant market blowing up somewhere, but as long as the funding markets are not touched, the effects on the real economy will be limited. Based on what I have seen publicly discussed, I see nothing that says that we are in any worse state than pre...