TUZ News and Press, PIMCO 1-3 Year U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund From 04/09/20

The severe damage already evident in the U.S. labor market is a clear signal of the recessionary plunge in economic activity. We now forecast real U.S. GDP will contract over −5% over the full year of 2020, with the deepest contraction in the second quarter - an estimated quarterly drop...

Over the last five weeks, the Federal Reserve has been in crisis mode. As a consequence of all its balance sheet expansions, the expansive alphabet soup of programs, along with QE infinity, the level of bank reserves has risen by just over $1.5 trillion. In the three weeks since the Fed's effo...

COVID-19 represents a watershed moment for relations between the Fed, Congress, and Treasury. Peter Conti-Brown - a legal scholar and financial historian at the University of Pennsylvania, as well as a Nonresident Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution - returns to Macro ...

Well, so much has happened, I hardly need to update the yield curve. Coronavirus has given us one big push into the recessionary outcome that we have been tentatively dancing around for some time. The first graph here is the comparison of the 10 year yield and Fed Funds Rate. The imminent re...

By James L. Caton Fiscal restraint is gone. Supported by central bankers who have developed a set of policy tools whose impact is practically imperceptible, year after year the national debt continues to grow. We no longer live in an era where easy money generates inflation. Such a worl...

Introducing The Term Premium Through the use of economic models, academic research has decomposed the observable long-term bond yields (i.e. US 10Y Treasury bond yield) into the expected path of the real interest rate (r*) and the additional term premium, which is thought as the extra re...

Investment thesis: On the plus side, the Fed's moves to backstop the credit market are starting to work; yields are coming down. However, there is still a lot of fear in the market, as witnessed in the still-strong bid for Treasuries. And the other bond markets are meandering. Right now, cas...

I must first state that the inflation that I am discussing in this article is the price of goods and services, not money inflation or asset price inflation. Mmmm - which to choose! I am sure that you have read very well reasoned articles that suggest that inflation is on the horizon. Here...

I've come up with what might be an unconventional way of forecasting inflation. I begin with the per capita net growth in aggregate debt in the US as my baseline to work with. From there, I use four factors that will prove to be either an inflationary force or a deflationary force. Dependi...

The Federal Reserve has done as it promised and opened the monetary spigots. Since the end of the banking week, February 26, 2020, the Federal Reserve has been buying securities at a regular pace, has opened several different sources of funds for firms that operate in the US money markets, a...