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With the money flow signals still positive, the overall bias to the market remains bullish for now. However, the rally is still at risk currently, given the more extreme overbought and bullish conditions. We must recognize and be responsive to changes in underlying market dynamics...

The “Purchasing Power of the Consumer Dollar” is the politically incorrect mirror image of inflation in consumer prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Purchasing power of the dollar in January dropped by 1.5% year-over-year to another record low. The...

Certainly, not all market participants are convinced yet that inflation might make a comeback, but don’t tell that to the bond market. The U.S. Treasury (UST) 10-Year yield continues to reside at the upper end of the trading range that has been established thus far in the new y...

The news this week has been mostly on the positive side when it comes to the virus. The bond market has been putting its chips on the likelihood of the Biden administration getting its relief bill through Congress. Global supply chains are still working out the disruptions experie...

This market has trained investors quite well that all pullbacks will be bought. Markets are not linear in nature, so we are likely approaching a top for which pullbacks will not be bought, and a larger bear market ensues. You need to understand the larger degree context of the mar...

The latest clue that we’re in yet another bubble is margin debt. When margin debt peaks, so, frequently, does the market. Another sign of the same dangerous attitude is excessive use of leveraged ETFs. For further details see: Overconfidence Meets Impatience To Se...

We expect the global economy to rebound strongly next year. But structural headwinds remain. Will the post-pandemic bounce trigger a durable and broad-based global reflation? For further details see: Will 2021 Mark The Launch Of A Durable Global Recovery?

The US dollar had a tough week. It fell against all the major currencies and most of the emerging market currencies. Sterling has gained around 1% against the euro over the past two weeks. For further details see: Beware Of The False Break

We now have $16.9 trillion of negative yielding debt bouncing around the world. China has joined the crowd and just sold negative yielding debt in Europe. Virtually everyone supposes that this type of magic will not take place in the United States. For further details see: ...

Amid all the confusion and commotion in the markets, the main story is simple. This is a world basking in the glory of reflation and accelerating nominal GDP growth. Higher long-term interest rates and a sustained rotation from growth to cyclical and value stocks. For furthe...