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U.S. President Donald Trump has been pushing the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider cutting policy rates below zero in an effort to stimulate growth and weaken the dollar. But his stance is a lonely one, as negative policy rates have largely gone out of style. Global central banks are reconside...

The basic idea behind the Quantity Theory of Money could be stated as: too much money supply is chasing too little goods supply, so prices rise. We have debunked this from several angles. For example, we can use a technique that every first year student in physics is expected to know. Dimensio...

It Happened Again The turmoil in the overnight repo markets had largely subsided in November. The last time I had occasion to write about this was on October 28, so you get the picture. Fed injections of overnight liquidity, and also outright purchases of Treasuries - largely short-termed T-...

America's tariffs against China are already showing signs of undermining the global economy and will create a funding crisis for the federal government when it leads to foreigners no longer buying US Treasury debt and selling down their existing dollar holdings. A subversive attempt by America...

By Jill Mislinski Note: The charts below have been updated with the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures price index from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The annualized rate of change is calculated to two decimal places for more precision in the side-by-side comparison with the Con...

By Thomas Aubrey In July 2007, the equity market was forecasting strong earnings growth with the S&P 500 breaking new highs. More importantly, credit markets were signalling that credit risk had largely been conquered. The credit default swap for Greece was just over 4bp compared to ju...

Historically reactive, the central bank is finally trying to get ahead of a potential crisis. This time a year ago, the federal funds target rate was 2.25% and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was intent on raising it to 3% while continuing to shrink the size of the central bank's bala...

Negative-interest-rate policies ((NIRP)) have been criticized by some (me included) and pursued by others, including Europeans aligned with former European Central Bank ((ECB)) president Mario Draghi. However, growing numbers of Europeans are becoming disenchanted with NIRP, and some are now s...

By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist Weekly Market Compass: Four central banks revisit policy, plus two new reports point to a continued global slowdown Last week brought a number of key developments from central banks around the world, from the release of the Federal R...

"The world is full of obvious things which nobody by any chance ever observes." - Sherlock Holmes I have lately been disturbed by the debt to GDP ratios issued by various governments. I don't think they are accurate. Further, I find the methodology of the ratings agencies flawed, in assess...