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moral hazard [ˈmôrəl ˈhazərd] NOUN economics lack of incentive to guard against risk where one is protected from its consequences, e.g. by insurance. The market continues to act very well given the horrific economic headlines that have crossed the w...

By Darren Williams COVID-19 has supplied the catalyst for a secular change in the role of central banks. Providing governments with ammunition to fight the virus is now the overriding goal, and this means keeping bond yields pinned close to zero for the foreseeable future. The Changing...

Why has the S&P 500's amplification factor turned negative after more than a decade of being virtually constant? It didn't happen all at once. It has happened in stages , coinciding with significant changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policies in response to the coronav...

The Eurodollar charts are updated through Friday. The Treasuries chart is monthly. The Treasuries chart suggests that the yield curve is functionally inverted. (The 10 year yield needs to get above the trendline.) Forward 5 year inflation expectations are below 1%. There is a lot of focus on...

Inflation-adjusted interest rates in the US have been negative before, but the dip below zero this time is different vs. recent decades: the slide is accompanied by a global economic collapse that may or may not be temporary. It's unclear if the latest return of negative real yields will des...

The Saudi Riyal's peg to the dollar has long been a strategic choice, contributing to the economic growth of the Kingdom for more than 30 years. Indeed there is no other currency that could handle the vast ocean of daily oil trades that help to keep the world moving. Because oil is traded in...

By Kevin Flanagan While scant attention is currently being given to the shape of the Treasury yield curve, I wondered what the future would hold. Certainly, there are a lot of other pressing issues making headlines, but what happens the next time the curve inverts - will it still be viewed...

Source: Shutterstock Stocks have Rallied Strongly The U.S. stock market just had its best month since 1987 . During April, the S&P 500 gained 12.7%. Since the low on March 23, stocks are up about 30%. This despite a continued torrent of bad economic news, including an enormous increas...

By Philip Lawlor, managing director, Global Markets Research As attention starts to shift towards when and how the lockdown exit will be implemented, there is a litany of important questions and themes that needs to be considered in a post-lockdown world. In this blog, we pose ten question...

Macroeconomists are split on the key issue of inflation versus deflation and there are valid arguments being made on both sides. The debate ultimately boils down to whether the surge in government bond issuance and money printing will continue to be offset by an even greater increase in the wi...