UBT News and Press, ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury From 10/12/23

2023-10-12 22:25:00 ET Summary Headline CPI came in at 3.7% today, but it’s at 2%, right on target, when you exclude shelter alone. This is pretty crucial in the broader context of what’s happening today because shelter is still running at 7.1% in the CPI when we kno...

2023-10-12 21:30:00 ET Summary On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 3.7%. Excluding shelter costs, which we know are artificially inflated by BLS methodology, the CPI is up only 2.0%. It is not unreasonable to think that the Fed has successfully arrested the inflation that was...

2023-10-12 20:10:00 ET Summary Halloween season is now upon us and if you look at recent price action within the U.S. Treasury (UST) market, it looks as if the spooks have started already. The recent surge in the UST 10-Year yield to 4.80% caught many observers by surprise and has...

2023-10-12 19:25:00 ET Summary In September 2023 the AIER Everyday Price Index (EPI) rose 0.29 percent to 288.6. This is the fourth consecutive increase in the EPI, and this increase takes our index to a new all-time high, topping last month’s record of 287.7. Within th...

2023-10-11 21:05:00 ET Summary Assessing risk amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Fed officials say high bond yields may be helping in their inflation fight. Is there a risk that the Fed is overtightening? The Israel-Gaza conflict has some investors assessing ho...

2023-10-11 10:15:00 ET Summary Inflationary pressures will likely be higher going forward than they’ve been over the past two decades. Higher real interest rates are necessary in such an environment to keep inflation at target. Higher real interest rates put pressure on bot...

2023-10-11 08:20:00 ET Summary Core inflation remains elevated in several economies, especially the United States and parts of Europe. Major central banks, therefore, may need to keep interest rates higher for longer. Making debt more expensive is an intended consequence of tighte...

2023-10-11 06:30:00 ET Summary The Israel-Hamas War has shocked the world and brought geopolitical risk to the forefront of global conversation. The September "dot plot" from the Federal Open Market Committee triggered fears that the US Federal Reserve would keep interest rates "h...

2023-10-11 06:02:00 ET Summary The bond bear market bubble has burst, at least for now, and even firm US CPI data might not change this. Two reasons for the bond market bubble bursting are 1) lower US hike risk, and 2) the elevation in geopolitical tension. But there's no reas...

2023-10-11 01:05:00 ET Summary Over the past 12 months industrial production has been flat and the ISM Manufacturing Report has been warning of imminent recession. Despite the warnings from reliable leading indicators, the dominant view now is that there will be a “soft lan...