USCI News and Press, United States Commodity Index Fund ETV From 05/24/22

The economic news emanating from Britain and the European Union is continuing to come in weak, as many European countries are expected to slip into a recession this year. While inflation may be ebbing in China and the U.S., inflation is still accelerating in Britain and the rest of Eu...

Our rising price problem is, more than anything, a supply problem, and reducing demand is certainly one way to tackle it. But returning to the pre-COVID growth rate doesn’t mean we are headed to recession, that contraction is in our immediate future. US stocks and REITs wer...

Concerns about inflation adversely impacting the consumer and corporate profitability appeared to drive the weakness. The consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors led today’s decline, trading down around 5% and 6%, respectively. Given the compounding uncertainty ...

We see volatility in equities, but volatility in fixed income is even higher than equity. The first thing that many investors look to diversify into in periods of high inflation and rising rates are real assets and real estate, in particular. I think blockchain, as a technology an...

The rising rate, rising dollar environment continues with the dollar index hitting a 20-year high last week. That rising dollar is having an impact on the rest of the global economy but so far it has been manageable. There are a lot of companies out there that have come public over th...

After a historic two years, we're pivoting from bullish to bearish on commodities. Weakening technicals, crowded positioning, and the overwhelming bullish consensus make for a treacherous tactical outlook. Stretched valuations, strong dollar, and a weakening macro backdrop also pr...

Our macroeconomic forecasting team assesses how the war and latest survey data have altered the economic outlook, policymaking and recession risks. Global growth was dragged lower, principally by steep contractions in Russia and mainland China. Barring the initial COVID-19 outbreak, M...

Wages are rising rapidly to try to keep up with the pace of inflation. We think that this is leading us to the early stages of a wage price spiral. During periods of high inflation, traditionally, real assets prosper while traditional assets suffer. So traditional assets typically suf...

Just when we thought the world economy was regaining its footing, a military conflict in Europe has led us to reconsider our outlook for growth and inflation. In light of Russia’s invasion, we developed a framework for thinking about the economic impact of the conflict on the e...

We slightly reduce risk on a worsening macro outlook. We upgrade European government bonds and investment grade credit, and downgrade Chinese assets. The Fed raised rates by 0.5% last week - the largest increase since 2000 - and signaled similar rises ahead. Long-term yields shot up a...