VCR News and Press, Vanguard Consumer Discretion From 02/16/21

Risk assets continued their historic run last week with EM equities and commodities leading the way. Bonds sold off as the 10-year Treasury note yield broke above 1.20% for the first time since the lows last spring. The 10-year TIPS yield closed the week at 1.02%, near the all-tim...

U.S. retailers soon will be reporting Q4 2020 earnings. The Refinitiv U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q4 earnings index is expected to decline by -12.0%. Only nine out of 32 estimates in our Restaurant Same Store Sales universe are expected to see positive comps. For further deta...

I generally think about retail as sitting on a spectrum from logistics to experience. E-commerce began at the logistics end, as a new and (sometimes) more efficient way to get something. It's not always more efficient. The right logistics in retail is a matter of algebra. ...

Some of these industries have amazing dividend growers. The key for these companies is to build a strong brand that serves them well over time. Unfortunately, while consumer cyclical companies can show double-digit growth during good years, the winds can change directions quickly. ...

Retail sales were surprisingly strong in 2020. Factors driving consumer spending in 2021 include vaccines, government support and stimulus, jobs, and pent-up demand for services. Bruinsma: Next winners could be in travel, restaurants and apparel/footwear as the economy re-opens. ...

Europe is clearly at risk of a double-dip recession, albeit a modest one. The IHS Markit Flash Eurozone Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) clocked in at 47.5, down from December's 49.1. The UK is in a worse situation, at an even greater risk than the eurozone of a double-dip re...

In a typical quarter, year-over-year (YoY) growth expectations decline by an average of 3.6 percentage points (ppts) from the start of the quarter to the start of earnings season. However, 20Q4 YoY earnings have increased by 1.5 ppts over this period to -10.3% by Jan. 1, 2021. Con...

Last week, the 10-year Treasury bond yield continued to rise, as last Tuesday's bond auction had a lackluster bid-to-cover ratio of 2.47. This means that the Fed is going to have to do more quantitative easing or the federal government is going to have to curtail its spending. The Fed...

Among strong, positive numbers, industrial production rose 1.6% in December, while the manufacturing component rose by 1.0%. Nominal retail sales declined -1.0% in December. Excluding the food services sector, which has been especially hard hit by the pandemic and lockdowns, sales wer...

COVID-19 didn't cause physical retail's steep decline - it just accelerated it. Retail survivors and thrivers will invest in the apps and digital tools that eliminate friction from the shopping experience. Consumers in the U.S., U.K., and Australia consistently rate the in-store s...