VCR News and Press, Vanguard Consumer Discretion From 05/11/21

The rotation from growth to value is accelerating. The combination of higher inflation, lower US dollar, and higher yields could be lethal for momentum stocks. The Fed is way behind the curve, but we believe that Jay Powell will be forced to acknowledge reality soon. Meanwhile...

Diversification remains key. Flexible strategies can also take advantage of a more uncertain yield and spread environment. We continue to find reasonable opportunity in both public and private credit markets. We find value in non-agency mortgages and prefer cyclicals to growth sto...

Are you familiar with the "Aggression Scale?" Instead of the common classifications, it's measuring sectors based on their volatility, cyclicality, and growth. Three sectors currently are making it to the top of the "Aggression Scale." Technology is only one of those. Can we be ov...

If you're mostly looking for growth - Consumer Discretionary is the most attractive sector for you. If you're mostly sensitive to valuation - Consumer Discretionary is the least attractive sector for you. Amazon is a terrific all-around player, and it should be part of any roster ...

Somewhat surprisingly given the global pandemic, 2020 existing home sales set a 14-year record. Right now, there is a severe lack of inventory: the U.S. actually has more registered real estate agents than it has homes for sale. Meantime, the interest rate environment is still ver...

Total nonfarm payrolls rose by +916,000 in March, well above consensus forecasts. ISM Manufacturing rose to its highest level since 1983. Consumer confidence surged to its best showing since last March. For further details see: Going Out Like A Lion

Taiwan accounts for approximately 65% of the world's semiconductor production, but the worst drought in 50 years is proving to be very challenging to semiconductor production, which requires a lot of water. Another industry crisis is expected to be the lithium battery shortage. Ma...

Stocks were up but the bigger winners were commodities and real estate. With the dollar down foreign markets also performed pretty well with Europe continuing to outperform. Growth beat value again last week but still lags significantly YTD. Large cap stocks also had another good week...

Headline, total retail sales smashed upward by 30% year-over-year (not adjusted), only some of which, again, are due to the low comparison by way of March 2020 in decline. Seasonally adjusted, retail sales were almost 10% higher in March than they had been in (upward revised) February...

Retail sales and food-services spending surged 9.8 percent in March, the second sharp jump in the last three months. Core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicle dealers and gasoline retailers, posted an 8.2 percent jump for the month, putting that measure at a new record high as we...