VCR News and Press, Vanguard Consumer Discretion From 03/09/22

US Consumer Discretionaries have fallen back to old support relative to Staples. A broader picture also shows a correction to a prior congestion zone for *global* Consumer Discretionary stocks. While a bearish downtrend remains intact, traders should monitor these intermarket tren...

The debit balances in margin accounts indicator weakened sharply, dropping from a positive trend to a negative trend. While nominal retail sales continue to grow, the real retail sales indicator in the AIER Leading Indicators Index remains in a downtrend. Demand for the manufactur...

This potential problem compounds if or when consumer sales soften simultaneously. While overall topline sales have stayed robust, there are incremental warning signs as to whether this will or even can continue much longer. the total revolving credit (seasonally-adjusted) was thou...

G5 central bank asset purchases are signaling that global PMIs are likely headed lower in the coming quarters. Inflation has completely destroyed real income growth. Speculative leverage has significantly reduced over the past couple of months. For further details see: G...

Emerging Markets are outperforming the rest of the world, due in large part to windfall profits in the commodities-exporting countries of South America and the Middle East. If you want to follow the money, this is a good place to start. Money has been flowing out of tech, consumer dis...

US economy shrugged off the effects of Omicron and should be relatively resilient to the headwinds caused by Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine by virtue of being an energy producer and having limited direct economic linkages. Higher interest rates are coming with 2% still...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the biggest conventional military attack in Europe since World War II, has wide-ranging implications for economies and markets around the world. Disruptions from this war and the higher energy prices that result could significantly dampen Europe&#x...

Retail sales stumbled in December, contributing some to the explosion in inventory across the US supply chain – but not all. Though retail sales rebounded substantially from December’s drop, this latest monthly (seasonally-adjusted) increase was the second-highest on rec...

Traders should stay keenly focused on market risks and weaknesses. I expected the conflict in Ukraine to have been priced into the US markets over the past 7+ days. However, I believe the markets were unprepared for this scale or invasion and will attempt to settle to fair stock price...

The U.S. has been importing more crude oil from Russia, especially on the West Coast, due to the decline of Alaska’s crude oil output. So, if the U.S. tried to curtail Russian energy imports, then the record prices at the pump on the West Coast could soar higher. China is expor...