VCR News and Press, Vanguard Consumer Discretion From 06/28/22

The gap between energy stocks and consumer discretionary stocks is striking. We think the market is suggesting that extreme energy inflation will lead to a dramatic reduction in spending. If consumer spending turns out to be more resilient than the market expects, we think the con...

It’s still supply chain chaos for retailers, but different retailers face different kinds of chaos. Overall retailer inventories, in terms of months’ supply, are still near historic lows. Inflation in goods – which is what retailers sell – has been far ...

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index's preliminary estimate for June plunged to a record low. The good news from all this bad news is that “contrarian theory” says that when sentiment reaches such historic lows, the only way it can go is up. T...

Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) - $0.4503. 30-Day SEC Yield of 0.74% as of June. 21. Payable Jun 28; for shareholders of record Jun 24; ex-div Jun 23. For further details see: Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF declares quarterly distribution of $0.4503

Cryptocurrencies are bid this morning, and US markets are reopening with a bounce following the steepest losses since March 2020. Short interest bets have now piled on, which can set the stage for a sharp rebound. Rebounds will likely be fleeting as long as central banks remain in...

A drop in big-ticket purchases such as autos serves as a canary in the coal mine. Americans were spending more because of rising prices. The mainstream claims that wages are rising and that enables Americans to keep up with rising prices. For further details see: Retail ...

AIER’s Leading Indicators Index returned to a neutral 50 reading in May, rising four points following an eight-point fall in April. While broad trends and risks continue, there are some signs of inflection in a few areas. The Roughly Coincident Indicators index fell back in...

Retail sales and food-services spending fell 0.3 percent in May following a 0.7 percent gain in April. Real total and real core retail sales are both well above prior trends. Overall, retail sales fell for the month and were dragged down by slower auto sales but remain well above ...

US retail sales were softer in May and there were downward revisions to April. Nonetheless, consumer spending can still grow strongly in the second quarter given a greater focus on services such as leisure and entertainment. However, the cost of living squeeze means households are...

As inflation surges, consumers are feeling the increased pricing pressures from all sides right now. The increased volatility and peak in oil prices seemed to take place as the end of an excess phase bubble was starting to unwind. Watching IYC move lower over the past 7+ months an...