VEA News and Press, Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets From 01/11/23

Summary The reflation trend appears to be peaking, based on the ratio for an inflation-indexed Treasuries ETF vs. nominal Treasuries. Within the US equities market, risk-off continues to show strong persistence in terms of the broad market vs. low-volatility stocks. US value stocks ...

Summary As expected, despite an overhang of risk from the pandemic, global banking sectors again avoided major crises in 2022. The combination of higher interest rates, tighter liquidity conditions, and risk aversion against a background of weaker global economic growth will slow credit...

Summary On a coincident basis, driven by a historically tight labour market and robust industrial production growth, the US economy remains deceptively strong despite negative real incomes and tight financial conditions. However, the leading indicators of the business cycle continue to ...

Summary Recession foretold in developed markets (DM), a pause in central bank rate hikes and China’s reopening help shape 2023 and reinforce our tactical views. European equities led DM stocks higher. Surprisingly weak U.S. services data spurred bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts...

Summary Goodbye 2022! Hello 2023. The folly of predicting macro variables. There is nowhere to hide in markets! For further details see: (Non)Predictions For 2023

Summary Global business activity fell for a fifth consecutive month in December, with the rate of decline moderating slightly amid improved supply conditions but still rounding off the worst quarter since 2009 barring lockdown months. At 48.2 in December, the Global PMI - compiled by S&...

Summary The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in December, slipping below 6% annualized, based on the average forecast for three models. GMI represents a theoretical benchmark of the optimal portfolio for the average investor with an infinite time h...

Summary Losses dominated market activity for the major asset classes in 2022. Commodities and cash are the exceptions. The big winner: broadly defined commodities. Overall, markets suffered far and wide, including losses for US stocks and bonds in the same calendar year. L...

Summary 2022 was the first year since 2016 that value investing thoroughly trounced growth investing. Growth had a nice spurt off the lows in June and October ’22 but the higher 10-year Treasury yield is acting like a wet blanket for growth stocks. I continue to think that no...

Summary There were ample causes for this global downdraft in equity markets. Global equity markets look likely to face a global recession in 2023, which appears to have already begun in the final quarter of 2022. Equity markets will face a tough global environment in 2023, particula...