VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 09/14/22

Summary There is abundant evidence that inflation pressures are cooling. I can't emphasize enough that this inflation flare-up was not caused by a Fed policy error: it was caused by the federal government's attempt to soften the blow of Covid lockdowns. Inflation would remain ...

Summary Inflation in my experience comes from mistakes in government policy which expands currency without a subsequent expansion in economic growth as measured by Real Private GDP. With the fixed income and gold options not effective in today’s climate, one must focus on e...

Summary We do not see the 6-month rate of change continuously chopping above and below the annual rate. Average hourly earnings remains at an elevated level when compared to past decades. The view that the Fed will be hiking rapidly until something breaks has to be taken serio...

Summary Many readers continue to ask about the Fed’s 2% inflation target, especially after the recent CPI and the market's reaction to it. Our opinion is that the Fed can achieve its target. Our opinion is that several years and a recession are what it will take to achi...

Summary Billions of consumers around the world are seeing higher oil prices seep into the cost of living and wages. If large and sustained, oil price shocks could fuel persistent rises in inflation and inflation expectations, which should be countered by a monetary policy response...

Summary Inflation has probably peaked. The problem is that the slide from the peak is proving to be slower than expected, dipping at a glacial pace, if any, depending on the metric. The hotter-than-expected report triggered new forecasts that the Federal Reserve’s policy ti...

Summary US inflation remains comfortably above 8%, placing implied pressure on the Fed to stay tough. In consequence, the market discount for the funds rate peak has extended to 4.25%. This is important for the 10yr Treasury yield, as there is a path there now to target 3.75%. ...

Summary The hot inflation reading for August was a narrative buster for many investors. What are the implications of Tuesday's report for stocks? What are the associated effects for bonds and gold? Well, I woke up Tuesday mornin’ It was supposed to be the late...

Summary After the July CPI report set up some hope that both headline and core inflation were moderating, the August CPI report significantly outpaced consensus expectations. The August CPI report suggests U.S. inflation will take longer to decline. New projections will be rel...

Summary Overall inflation as measured by the year-over-year Consumer Price Index backed off a wee bit but not nearly as much as expected, to 8.3% in August from 8.5% in July. Inflation has shifted from supply chain issues and commodities to services. Services CPI jumped by 0.6% in...