VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 09/27/22

Summary Powell’s speech last Wednesday raised recession fears. The Atlanta Fed revised its third-quarter GDP estimate down to a +0.3% annual pace, down from its previous estimate of a +0.5% annual pace. U.S. interest rates also shot up in response to the Fed Chair’s ...

Summary The British pound UK gilts – the equivalent of U.S. Treasuries – had outsized moves on Friday with 10-year gilts surging as much as 50 basis points in a single day, while the pound cratered. The outsized Fed rate hikes in the middle of all this volatility are...

Summary UK rates haven’t had a chance to fully digest the Bank of England’s statement yesterday. We think hike expectations will persist, but there are other areas where the BoE and Treasury can restore confidence. Tough to stand in the way of higher US rates, ev...

Summary A market collapse is nothing but risk-aversion meeting an inadequate risk-premium; rising yield pressure meeting an inadequate yield. Value is not measured by how far prices have declined, but by the relationship between prices and properly discounted cash flows. My ad...

Summary Stocks are now back down to the lows set in June and sentiment is as negative now as it was then. There is a long list of technical items that have hit levels or rates of change we associate with bottoms, short- or long-term. The economic data last week was mostly abou...

Summary Markets are entering a new era, where inflation slowing growth are the new normal. Why we may be entering a period of deglobalization. Why the next decade may look very different from the last for investors. Equity markets have been grappling with hig...

Summary The month of September is living up to its reputation as one of the worst-performing months during a year. In just the past two weeks alone the S&P 500 Index is down 9.53%. The equity market weakness has pushed the S&P 500 Index down to a level that is testing the ...

Summary The Federal Reserve’s 75 basis point increase resulted in a yield curve twist, with shorter term Treasury yields shifting up and longer term yields moving down. The forward 1-month U.S. Treasury yield now peaks at 4.68%, down 21 basis points from last week. This...

Summary Many central banks aren’t acknowledging the extent of recession needed to rapidly reduce inflation. Markets haven’t priced that, so we shun most stocks. Yields surged after more rate hikes and the UK’s fiscal splurge news. We cut UK gilts to underweigh...

Summary Leading central bank interest rates, set by to fight inflation, are attempting to peak in the near future. With sub-4% rates for US Treasuries, 10-year high-grade corporates at 4.6%, and medium-grades at 5.23%, the premium for government paper appears to be in place. Howev...