VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 10/12/22

Summary Inflation is poorly understood with many moving parts. We dig into the underlying mechanisms to uncover opportunity. I see a pathway to economic stabilization and market recovery. On 10/12/22 the markets had a rocky open due to a somewhat above expectations 0.4 i...

Summary The February 2020 high of 17,944 is the next price test on deck for the TSX. The relative strength of financials and fossil fuels has softened the overall index losses to date; that’s unlikely to last. With the popping of the everything bubble, the assets most i...

Summary The Fed had paved the way for a major inflation problem during the first half of 2020 - a problem that became blatantly obvious in 2021. The equity bubble has burst, the US economy has entered or is about to enter recession territory, commodity prices have set intermediate...

Summary US data and policy should remind markets of the difficulty in timing the Fed’s pivot. Conditions for market volatility should remain in place until year-end. The Bank of England is keeping gilt investors on their toes - expect more volatility and more interventi...

Summary In recent months, the economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of a cyclical downturn. As such, we remain in a situation where positive economic data (i.e. resilient Q3 corporate earnings) could be considered bearish as such an outcome will delay any hope of a dovis...

Summary Many people these days are talking about a Fed “pivot”. This idea that they will alter their rate of change in interest rates and manage the “soft landing” they desire. How do you freeze the biggest sector of the economy without causing the risk...

Summary As the weakness in equities continues, we wanted to provide an update on where the major averages stand relative to their pre-COVID highs in February 2020. As if equity market returns relative to the pre-COVID high weren’t pedestrian enough, keep in mind that once y...

Summary The effective overnight interbank lending rate is now 3.08%. It was just 0% a little over six months ago. The facts show that the economic conditions extant in 2018 placed it in a much better position to handle rising borrowing costs than what we see today. Total U.S. ...

Summary With inflation having soared, the Fed has shifted in 2022 to withdrawing accommodation, raising rates, and shrinking its balance sheet. As for the U.S. real economy, rate hikes hit first through their direct impact on mortgage rates. Future housing construction is like...

Summary VGLT tracks the performance of long-dated U.S. Treasuries. Climbing interest rates have translated to a disaster for the fund this year, currently off more than 30% from its 2021 high. We cover a few reasons to turn bullish including a scenario where inflation surprise...