VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 10/18/22

Summary The Fed isn’t likely to stop raising rates anytime soon which means cash is starting to become a viable competitor to the increasingly volatile trading in stocks and bonds. Liquidity is now reaching very dangerous levels. The US Ten-Year Note Yield crossed the 4...

Summary PPI and CPI numbers came out last week, and both were higher than expected. Fed officials are concerned about the persistence of high inflation, and a 0.75% key interest rate hike at the November FOMC meeting is virtually certain. Worldwide demand for crude oil naturally r...

Summary Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn’t surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rearview mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain that is his plan. Sto...

Summary We’re underweight government bonds because yields have room to move higher, and we don’t think they can be a safe haven when recession comes. Stocks were choppy and short-term U.S. Treasury yields jumped after data showed persistent U.S. core inflation. We th...

Summary Bond markets appear to be disciplining policy inconsistencies, both within sovereigns and among them. Policymaking can be inconsistent in two ways: within a sovereign, between the fiscal and monetary authorities, and among sovereigns. We see plenty of evidence that pol...

Summary Janet Yellen raised the specter of buying Treasuries this past week, without it being QE. The comments seemed to be born of some illiquidity issues within the Treasury market. 2022 is a midterm election year. It’s been grim YTD with the S&P 500 down -23.83% whil...

Summary We have been on a market roller-coaster. Why the violent ups and downs? We are still in negative gamma. The options market is controlling the stock market. There is a lack of liquidity in the market, and the positions in the options market are now very short-term. Ther...

Summary Farmland Partners, a real estate investment trust, was trading at $6.40 the day before the first article was published. Gladstone Land's stock price rose from $13.57 to $17.83 while paying $1.08 of dividends, which provided investors with a 38% gain. The best lesson is...

Summary While the Fed continues to hike rates to combat high inflation levels aggressively, history shows that deflation will become a more significant threat when something “breaks” in the financial or credit markets. While “high inflation rates” are c...

Summary Depending on the indicator of choice, there’s supporting evidence for deciding that worst of the inflation surge is behind us. The CPI numbers for September is a study in contrasts. Headline CPI continues to show peak inflation in the rear-view mirror, if only modes...