VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 10/31/22

Summary Unlike the CPI, which came in at 8.2%, the PCE held steady at 6.2% on a year-over-year basis. Prices increased for services from 5.0% to 5.3%, driven by rising housing and transportation services costs. New claims for unemployment insurance released on Thursday, Oct 17...

Summary We see central banks on a path to overtighten policy. Their balance sheet reductions up selling pressure on government bonds, so we’re underweight. We think rates will - and may already have - hit levels that make recessions foretold. That isn’t yet reflected...

Summary Central banks across the globe are not in lock step with the U.S. Fed. Could this limit what the Fed could do? Will the Fed start signaling a less hawkist direction for rates? Finding bright spots in the fixed income market. Bank of Canada raised overnight ...

Summary Do corporate earnings disappointments signal a weaker economy and easing inflation pressures, which could end this scary market—or are there more twists to come? When we look in detail at last week’s disappointing third-quarter reports from five of the bigges...

Summary Relentless recent pace of strong consumer demand is starting to show signs of flagging, giving strength to the argument that a recession is likely to take place sometime in the first half of 2023. Prices keep going down, which triggers a vicious cycle of yet more selling. ...

Summary A fourth consecutive 75bp rate hike from the Federal Reserve looks like a done deal for next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The market had been favouring a fifth consecutive 75bp hike at the December FOMC meeting up until late last week. As...

Summary The Fed’s next crisis is already brewing. The drawdown in bonds is the most important. The credit market is the lifeblood of the economy. If something is breaking in the Treasury market, it will likely be time to buy both stocks and long-dated Treasuries as the ...

Summary Money supply growth fell again in September, dropping to a 37-month low. Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity, and an indicator of coming recessions. Since January of this year, the Fed has raised the target federal funds rate from .2...

Summary The core PCE price index jumped 5.1% in September, compared to a year ago, the fourth-highest reading in this cycle, behind January, February, and March. In terms of the Fed’s 2% inflation target as measured by core PCE, inflation is worsening and now measures over ...

Summary In recent decades, every instance in which the economy contracted two quarters in a row has coincided with a recession. The Fed tends to keep an even closer eye on the 10-year/3-month spread, and even that is now pointing to recession as well. The Fed has temporarily s...