VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 11/08/22

Summary The U.S. inflation report is likely to remain the most economic piece of data for markets, for the foreseeable future. Falling inflation eventually will allow central banks to perform the much-discussed pivot, both in terms of the speed of tightening and eventual terminal ...

Summary Powell pointed out that the yield curve is not inverted yet if you look at the 3 month/10-year Treasury spread. The 2-10 spread is more inverted than any of the most recent (Greenspan or Bernanke) inversions, but it has not gotten as bad as the Volcker inversions, which we...

Summary The recent rise in real yields for inflation-indexed Treasuries (TIPS) looks compelling for locking in relatively attractive payout rates, but the usual risks with bonds still applies. History suggests that buying and holding this 50-50 mix is attractive when the sum ...

Summary It's all about the history you don't know. We have been this way before, and rates and inflation were much worse. Historical fact does not matter. pessimism reigns supreme. Blood in the streets + horrible sentiment + attractive valuation = Time to be greedy. ...

Summary The mistake of the 1970s was that, by overtightening, the Fed created a deep drop in economic activity that necessitated the subsequent rapid cuts. Hiking too fast, not allowing time to see the effect of past rate hikes, is exactly how the Fed ends up overtightening in jus...

Summary After rallying 9% off the October 12 bottom, the market pulled back last week but still sits 5.4% above the low point. Commodities are trouncing all other major asset classes on a YTD basis, largely due to the rise in oil, natural gas, and agricultural prices. The newe...

Summary Tight monetary policy aims to slow down an overheated economy by increasing interest rates. Conversely, loose monetary policy aims to stimulate an economy by lowering interest rates. Global central banks have raised rates rapidly but their rates are still below inflation l...

Summary The trend for the dollar and the 10-year Treasury yield is still up but, as I said last week, both appear to be hitting a short-term peak. US stocks were down last week but non-US stocks had a great week. The selloff in the dollar Friday goosed non-dollar returns by nearly...

Summary BlackRock’s top investment leaders came together at the Outlook Forum. The upshot: the new regime is not about to change, and we need a new playbook. Stocks slid and yields rose as the Federal Reserve delivered another mega rate rise and signaled it would need to ta...

Summary The early line from the prediction betting polls expect the Republicans to gain seats and control both houses of Congress. That could put a check mark on the side of the market bears and put a crimp on markets, as the gridlock in DC means no more stimulus until 2025. The t...