VGLT News and Press, Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF From 11/15/22

Summary “Inflation expectations” feature prominently in the FOMC statements and in the minutes of FOMC meetings. The theory is that when inflation expectations remain “anchored,” even raging inflation will start settling down again, but when inflation e...

Summary The CPI readings announced last week were not as high as many expected, and market participants treated the less bad news as good news. Market pivots tend to be infrequent, and partially reversed quickly. They can have limited long-term predictive value but can be an early...

Summary The Prime Rate is currently at 7.00%. Aggregate Debt is now around $93 trillion. The US economy can only withstand a very large debt service expenditure relative to the economy for so long before rates decline or debt defaults. Highly likely rates will have to drop...

Summary We had good news on the inflation front this week. Inflation is most likely peaking here for the time being. Helping the idea of a Federal Reserve pivot to lower rates will soon be unemployment readings. Those readings will begin to worsen, clearly showing the economic sli...

Summary The October Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4%, while the core rate (removing the volatile food and energy components) increased by 0.3%. The monthly increases - and the resulting trend rates - were less than financial markets expected. The annualized pace of growth for...

Summary Surging stocks show markets believe hopes of a soft landing by the Fed to be true. We disagree and stay underweight developed market (DM) stocks. U.S. stocks jumped and bond yields plunged after October CPI rose less than the market expected. But sticky core inflation keep...

Summary In our polarized world, your politics can be hazardous to your performance. Many political claims seem to make sense but do not hold water. The economy, energy policy and inflation may be the poster children of this campaign. Market reaction going into (and coming ...

Summary This week’s simulation shows that the most likely range for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield in ten years is from 1% to 2%. There is a 24.49% probability that the 3-month yield falls in this range, a change from 23.80% one week before. For the 10-year Treasu...

Summary The average spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate has averaged 1.7% since 1990 and now stands at 2.9%. Small and mid-cap stocks continue to look better technically than US large cap. The Russell 2000, S&P 600 and S&P 400 (midcap) index E...

Summary We are in a landscape of divergences and potential pivots. The capacity to absorb structurally higher rates is likely to be key over the next year or two. We think the volatility generated by pivots can continue to offer a favorable backdrop to global macro and other t...