VIOV News and Press, Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value From 07/13/22

The June Index level was reported at 89.5 and the NFIB report notes this represents "the sixth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98." A net negative 61% of small business owners, a seven-point decline from last month, are expecting better business conditions over the next...

The latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends came out this morning. The headline number for June came in at 89.5, down 3.6 from the previous month. The index is at the 7th percentile in this series. A decline in Small Business Sentiment was a long leading indicator ...

The S&P 500 remains above the 3,810 May 20th low print and the June 17th low print of 3,636.87. Crude oil has not made a new high since March ’22, copper has fallen sharply as have many of the grain and other commodity prices. The sentiment is horrible around both stock...

Fund-flows and fear are constants. Changes to primary bull trends require loss of both of these constants. We show that both are still in place, which means so is the primary bull trend. There are only two constants in the stock market: funds and fear. Every other factor...

The core rate of U.S. inflation on both the consumer and wholesale level has been steadily declining since March. In light of the Supreme Court’s recent decision to curb the EPA’s power, the SEC’s new climate disclosures are expected to be aggressively challenged ...

Recession risk is rising, which inevitably leads to a discussion and debate about what exactly defines such an event. NBER is widely admired as the gold standard for identifying the start and end dates of US economic contractions. We can look (slightly) ahead to the immediate futu...

The volume of trade between the U.S. and China rebounded from April 2022's low. China's government continued lifting the burden of its zero-COVID policies in June 2022. Through May 2022, the gap between that trajectory and the post-pandemic trade recovery narrowed to $0.2 billion....

The fact is that while the pundits argue about whether we are in a recession or not when it comes to the stock market, the only thing that matters is liquidity—the amount of money available to trade stocks. It’s pretty obvious that money has been moving into IBB aggressi...

U.S. rates: The dueling narratives. Is a recession coming? Will the Fed temper its commitment to push rates even higher? Central banks have been raising rates all year in an attempt to tame inflation. But with the fear of recession growing, will the Federal Reser...

The Committee will be faced with the challenge of assessing whether growth in the second quarter is likely to be negative, triggering the declaration of a recession, or whether growth has persisted. Goldman Sachs released its revised GDP forecast for Q2, cutting its estimate from 1.9%...