VRIG News and Press, Invesco Variable Rate Investment Grade ETF From 03/27/19

Last week stocks shuddered as ten year yields dipped below treasury bills, reminding investors that yield curve inversions eerily precede recessions. A St. Louis Fed model using the yield curve gives a 30% probability of a recession within a year, up from 24% in December. Nonetheless, the S&...

Is it different this time? Popular measures of the yield curve, including the 10-year vs. 3-month Treasury spread, have inverted which has caused interest rates to move to the front page. Interest rates are always on my front page in terms of analyzing markets and we accurately predicted t...

There’s no real nice way to say that I found Wednesday's FOMC minutes to be disgraceful. The only conclusion I’m left with is that Jerome Powell has capitulated and is now scared of either the market turning on him, the president turning on him or both. Otherwise, how do you expl...

The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday and the feeling is that there will be no change in the central bank’s policy rate of interest. Fed watchers, however, will be looking for changes in the “feel and tone” of what Federal Reserve officials wr...

The following article is an excerpt from a recent Premium Edition of the True Vine Letter. Interest rates have begun an upward long-term trend My long-term views on interest rates and the bond market are: Interest rates are going to continue to rise, albeit with strong co...

A little over one month ago, I penned a research note titled, " Bonds Are Saying Something - We Should Be Listening ," in which I gave a comprehensive analysis of interest rates and discussed the opposing messages in the stock market and the bond market. While some readers took this anal...

Quantitative tightening has been running at full speed for almost 5 months now (and for a total period of 17 months since commencing in October 2017), and with QT finally coming front of mind for investors I thought it would be a good idea to update some of the charts from my previous " 8 Char...

Two months ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell set off a market panic. He suggested the FOMC would do what it thinks is right and let asset prices go where they may. They promised at least two if not three more rate hikes in 2019. The stock market fell out of bed. Fast forward to now. The Fed...

This is the final part of the three-part series on the yield curve. You can read part I and part II by clicking here and here . In part I of this series, I started at the front-end of the yield curve, actually discussing Federal Funds Futures, as well as touched on short-term intere...

In part I of this series, we discussed the very short end of the yield curve, actually starting with Fed Funds futures, to understand the expectations in the market today as it pertains to Federal Reserve policy. If you have not read part I, you can do so by clicking here . After analyz...