VTIP News and Press, Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities From 10/07/22

Summary A critical factor contributing to the market's downward trajectory this year is the high level of inflation and the Fed's higher interest rates. The pandemic and the related shutdowns create a unique environment making it difficult to interpret some of the recent economic ...

Summary The broadest measure of the bond market, the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index, has returned -14.61% YTD through the end of the third quarter. All segments of the bond market have posted negative returns YTD. 2022 is shaping up to be the worst performance year in the 45-yea...

Summary The Federal Reserve continued to raise short-term rates in their battle to slow inflation in the third quarter. The end of the quarter saw Hurricane Ian deal a lethal blow to southwest Florida. The economic impact is severe and portends a big downshift in the economy o...

Summary Rising prices continue to confound expectations that slowing global growth will ease inflation pressures. Financial market turbulence may be here to stay for some time. The ability to rebalance negatively correlated assets helps generate income and potential return whi...

Summary The new regime poses an unavoidable trade-off for central banks: tame inflation by hiking or preserve growth. We see them overtightening rates, so keep risk low. UK gilt yields reached 14-year highs before the Bank of England intervened to halt the selloff. Yields on 10-ye...

Summary YTD, the S&P 500 is now down 24% while bonds have their own double-digit losses. Like stock valuations, currency valuations aren’t great timing tools but over a 3-year period after becoming undervalued, the outperformance is strong. Consumer defensive stocks...

Summary While the focus has been on Fed Funds Target range in wake of last week’s FOMC meeting, there is also another component to this query: the Treasury 10-Year yield. The Fed certainly made headlines at the just completed September FOMC meeting with their internal proje...

Summary We believe it is unlikely that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will navigate a pivot to a less-hawkish stance before early in 2023. We expect China to grow at a meager 2%-3% pace in 2022, with the potential for these risks to bleed into 2023, as a slowing developed-market consumer...

Summary Inflation-adjusted interest rates are rising, rapidly. The lightning surge in real yields has a wide range of implications for macro and markets - a change that is now front and center for monitoring risk factors. As real yields rise further, the allure of locking in h...

Summary A market collapse is nothing but risk-aversion meeting an inadequate risk-premium; rising yield pressure meeting an inadequate yield. Value is not measured by how far prices have declined, but by the relationship between prices and properly discounted cash flows. My ad...