VTIP News and Press, Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities From 07/16/21

The U.S. has experienced three months in a row of elevated - and rising - consumer inflation rates. Monetary policy has broken down and is scarcely able to translate central bank actions into the Main Street economy. Fiscal policy is more unproductive than productive, and the more...

June numbers show continued strength, which will likely continue into the second half of 2021. Long-term rates were mostly muted but with a flatter curve, implying that investors are pulling forward the timing of Federal Reserve's asset-purchase tapering and rates lift-off. June's...

U.S. stocks moved to new all-time highs in the first half of 2021 as we eye the other side of the pandemic. Our 20-stock portfolio almost kept pace with 'the market' in 2021. Our Dividend Achievers (plus 3 stock picks) portfolio has a very generous beat of the market over the last...

The economy is loaded with unwanted cash, and the return on that cash (and the return on almost all fixed-income instruments) is hugely negative. Inflation this year will take about $2 trillion out of the pockets of those owning Treasuries and give it to the federal government. Ca...

The best news last week was the continuing decline in global bond yields, including the 10-year Treasury rate falling below 1.4% last Tuesday. If and when the Fed decides to raise key short-term interest rates, I don’t think they will be able to raise rates by much, since the f...

Ten-year government bond yields mostly fell in June, with those for Australia dropping by more than 16 basis points to 1.48%. The second biggest move came from the U.S. 10-year Treasury mid-yield, which ended June nearly 15 basis points lower at 1.44%, its lowest level since early Mar...

What makes the current scenario most interesting is the fall in the US Ten-Year note yield (TNX), which looks headed for a test of the 1.4% area. Certainly, the fall in bond yields points to expectations of a weakening economy, as well as the possibility that the Fed won’t open...

Risk-adjusted performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to push higher in June, based on the annualized Sharpe ratio for a rolling ten-year window via monthly data. GMI’s 10-year SR increased to 0.84, the highest in 18 months. GMI is an unmanaged, market-value...

Investment uncertainty is focused on the nature of the current spike in inflation, which the Fed argues is transitory, though a growing number of people do not buy this narrative. Historically, the Fed has never been able to head off any longer-lasting inflation uptrends without a recessi...

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) resumed an upward drift in June, rising to an annualized 6.0%. The current risk premium forecast for GMI - 6.0% - suggests that multi-asset-class strategies will generate lower returns relative to results posted in recent yea...