VTWO News and Press, Vanguard Russell 2000 Index Fund From 02/02/23

Summary As economies both in the United States and globally weaken with tighter monetary policies, corporate earnings are coming under greater pressure. Without exception, in the 24 months prior to a recession, large caps outperformed small caps. Higher-quality investments did not m...

Summary The massive fiscal expansion during COVID and the Fed’s accommodation of that spending via QE is what caused the spike in prices over the last 18 months. Spending fell back and has essentially been trending sideways since. Credit spreads are still below average and in...

Summary The Fed's inflation fighting credibility is really on the line this year. The peak in inflation was mid-2022, and it's fallen a lot in the last six months and likely to keep falling. The long end of the yield curve is held in check to some extent by the Fed's stubbornness at...

Summary As of 30 Jan. 2023, an analytical model developed by an analyst at the U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling the probability the NBER will someday say the U.S. went into recession during 2023 is nearing 50%. Assuming the Fed follows through on hiking the Federal Funds Rate by anothe...

Summary Despite mounting evidence supporting recession forecasts, the stock market remains at odds with that outlook. Such leaves investors in a predicament of avoiding a further drawdown in the equity markets but not wanting to miss out on a potential recovery. History is exception...

Summary The most common definition of a recession is two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth in a nation’s GDP on an inflation adjusted basis (real GDP). It is common for bear markets to begin before recessions officially start as investors anticipate tougher economic...

Summary The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.5% - 4.75%. The 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields are essentially unchanged since late September as investors await more information about the economy. I think it is likely t...

Summary While the economy continues to be relatively strong, there are several seemingly intractable problems on the horizon. Consumers are spending beyond their means and absent a sharp increase in real wages, this is likely to lead to a drop in spending once excess savings are consume...

Summary Yesterday’s weekly update on initial jobless claims suggests that the labor market will continue expanding. A pair of proprietary business-cycle indicators highlighted in the weekly updates of The US Business Cycle Research Report also show a modest contraction in progres...

Summary We called RYLD's double-digit yield "imaginary" as in one that would see poor total returns. The thesis has played out and total returns have been nowhere in the ballpark of the yield. We examine where the fund stands today and give ideas for income investors not wanting the...