VTWV News and Press, Vanguard Russell 2000 Value Index Fund From 09/15/22

Summary With the ten-year T-note yielding 3.41%, the S&P 500 at 3946 indicates likely nominal returns of 3.00%/year over the next ten years. The Fed will overshoot in tightening, leading the stock market to new lows in this bear market. When the yield curve inverts, those ...

Summary Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell by 5,000 for the week ending September 10th, coming in at 213,000. Claims have fallen for five consecutive weeks and are at their lowest level since May 28th but remained slightly above the pre-pandemic average o...

Summary The September CPI, reflecting August 2022 inflation data, came in at 8.3%, which was higher than the consensus forecast but lower than the two previous readings. A 75-bp rate hike from the Fed is almost certain for September, and rates are likely to reach the 4% range by E...

Summary Over the last month, there has been a continuation of the significant market volatility that has dominated much of 2022. Inflation fears have driven markets and, as happened in the first half of the year, both equities and bonds have sold off. The fundamental issue of ...

Summary There is abundant evidence that inflation pressures are cooling. I can't emphasize enough that this inflation flare-up was not caused by a Fed policy error: it was caused by the federal government's attempt to soften the blow of Covid lockdowns. Inflation would remain ...

Summary Inflation in my experience comes from mistakes in government policy which expands currency without a subsequent expansion in economic growth as measured by Real Private GDP. With the fixed income and gold options not effective in today’s climate, one must focus on e...

Summary Inflation is thought to be a strong negative for stock prices. This seems to be borne by market action. However, over time, inflation actually contributes to higher stock prices. It seems widely accepted that higher inflation is a problem for the market and t...

Summary AIER’s Leading Indicators Index held at a cycle low of 29 in August, matching the lowest level since August 2020. The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board rose in August, the first increase following three consecutive monthly declines. The final A...

Summary Tuesday was an extremely rare 56:1 down day, we wiped out all of the gains we made over the prior four days, and we are setting up for a 25% rally over the next 12 months. For every stock that was up, there were 56 that were down. The market had put together an impress...

Summary After the July CPI report set up some hope that both headline and core inflation were moderating, the August CPI report significantly outpaced consensus expectations. The August CPI report suggests U.S. inflation will take longer to decline. New projections will be rel...