XSVM News and Press, Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF From 12/11/22

Summary US: Two blockbuster events will have Wall Street on edge as the disinflation trade may have gotten ahead of itself. EU: The ECB meeting next week promises to be a defining moment in the bloc’s fight against inflation. UK: It’s all going on in the UK next week. ...

Summary Half of the G10 central banks meet in the week ahead. It is no longer about when US inflation will peak, but how fast it will come down. The core rate is of critical interest. Half of the G10 central banks meet in the week ahead. The Fed is first on December 14...

Summary The Fed needs to deliver a hawkish message for 2023 at the December FOMC meeting. It seems highly probable the Fed will signal a 5% or higher terminal rate for 2023. If the Fed fails, it risks losing control of the market. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday, December 14...

Summary A liability is money that the Fed owes some other entity - in this case, money that the Fed owes the US Treasury Department. if the average combined balances in 2023 of reserves and overnight RRPs is $4.5 trillion, and if the Fed pays an average of 5% on these balances, it will ...

Summary Recent levels for the equity put/call ratio suggest investors are exhibiting extreme equity market bearishness. A cluster of readings above 1.0 have occurred since November. P/C ratios above 1.0 signal overly bearish sentiment from the individual investor, as put volume outpaces...

Summary Year-over-year CPI is backing off its June highs of 9.1%, prompting the Fed to slow its pace of rate hikes. Currently at 3.78%, Morgan Stanley forecasts a peak Fed Funds rate of 4.5-4.75%. Though a soft landing may be possible with a continued tight labor market and an early...

Summary A 50bp hike is widely expected, given high inflation and a tight jobs market, but the market is pricing in a recession, and falling Treasury yields and a weakening dollar are undermining the Fed’s efforts to dampen price pressures. A hawkish Fed message will likely fall o...

Summary The current anti-business backdrop will continue to be an overhang for the U.S. economy. Market participants are facing a complex scene, and I repeat "we have never been here before". A "mild" recession doesn't necessarily mean a short-duration BEAR market. Consumer sent...

Summary Monetary tightening is aimed at slowing demand growth relative to aggregate supply, which will require a sustained period of below-trend US economic growth. The stakes are split between those who think FOMC rates will go up to 5% or more before a break. It is in the labor ma...

Summary Recession likely but shortlived. Inflation higher for longer. 3-year T bond rate of 7% in the cards. But real GDP should grow 2% year over year and S&P 500 revenues will match. Companies will maintain profit margins by cutting staff. As I write, the S&a...