Goldman Sachs analyst Bonnie Herzog is incrementally more positive on Molson Coors Beverage Co (NYSE:TAP) & Constellation Brands Inc (NYSE:STZ) and incrementally negative on Boston Beer Company Inc (NYSE:SAM) based on feedback from the beer distributor contacts in the recent Beverage Bytes survey.
The analyst upgraded the shares of Molson Coors Beverage from Neutral to Buy and raised the price target from $66 to $75.
The analyst sees a positive risk/reward given the distributors expect TAP to be a big winner of spring shelf resets, gaining an incremental mid-single-digit percentage of shelf space on average.
More distributors reported share gains strengthening for Miller Lite & Coors Light with nearly 80% of distributors expecting the brands to be able to hold onto their share gains, notes the analyst.
The analyst notes 78% of distributors had more inventory of TAP brands in March, which suggests TAP may have shipped even more than anticipated in first-quarter ahead of spring resets.
The analyst expects a first-quarter beat for TAP, reflecting an improved outlook on shipment/depletion growth ...