MCS - 'Little Mermaid' cruising toward holiday-weekend hit

2023-05-26 15:16:14 ET

A previously animated little mermaid is set to become part of our (live-action) world, and she's ready to make a splash at the Memorial Day weekend box office.

Walt Disney's ( NYSE: DIS ) live-action remake of its animated classic The Little Mermaid drew $10.3M in Thursday previews, and dives into 4,300 domestic theaters, taking advantage of an American audience that largely has a Monday holiday.

That suggests it's pacing to at least the $100M mark for the usual three days, and more like $120M-plus for the holiday period.

By way of recent comparison, Disney's remake of Aladdin drew $7M in Thursday previews and ended up with $116M over the same holiday weekend in 2019.

Disney has seen mixed-to-very-strong results from its live-action remakes, and the newer takes on Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin and The Lion King all became $1B films on a worldwide basis. Whether the new film can join them depends on whether the new Mermaid has legs.

The bigger hits of 2023 are likely to settle in behind The Little Mermaid over the weekend: Fast X ( NASDAQ: CMCSA ) has the best shot at second place after its $67M opening last weekend. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ( DIS ) is still plugging away in theaters for a fourth week. And The Super Mario Bros. Movie ( CMCSA ) might hold off newer films as well.

Thanks to Super Mario Bros. (2023's biggest hit at $551.85M domestically) -- as well as Fast X, M3GAN and Cocaine Bear -- Universal ( CMCSA ) became the first studio to cross $1B at the domestic box office this year.

As Disney comedy counterprogramming, Lions Gate ( NYSE: LGF.A ) ( LGF.B ) releases About My Father, a cross-cultural family comedy with Sebastian Maniscalco and Robert De Niro. Comedian Bert Kreischer and Mark Hamill star in R-rated Russian-mob comedy The Machine ( NYSE: SONY ). And A24 is out with modest comedy You Hurt My Feelings, starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus. Meanwhile, Gerard Butler stars in Afghanistan-focused action thriller Kandahar (Open Road).

Cinema tickers: AMC Entertainment ( AMC ); Cineworld ( OTCPK:CNNWQ ); Cinemark ( CNK ); ( IMAX ); Marcus ( MCS ); Reading International ( RDI ); Cineplex ( CGX:CA ); National CineMedia ( NCMI ).

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